How Big Will the Air Pollution Market be in the Next Few Years? Find Out
on May 31 at 10:00 a.m.
Big changes are occurring in the industries and geographies which comprise the
air pollution control markets. A Hot Topic Hour hosted by Bob McIlvaine on
Thursday, May 31, at 10 a.m. will provide analysis and discussion of these
changes. The impact of regulations on coal opportunities in the U.S. will be
discussed along with the market for gas turbine NOx control.
The big power plant APC markets in Asia will be explored.
The opportunities created by the Cement and Industrial boiler MACT will also be
addressed.
There is a hot new market for removing SO2 from vessels, developing
markets in unconventional gas and oil and even odor control from municipal
wastewater plants. Each will be discussed.
To register for this 90 minute webinar on Thursday, May 31, 2012 at 10:00 a.m.
(Central time) click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/hot_topic_hour_registration.htm.
McIlvaine Hot Topic Hour Registration
On Thursday at 10:00 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine
hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control
subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either
Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Environmental Upgrade
Tracking System. The cost is $125.00
for non-subscribers.
Market Intelligence
webinars are free to McIlvaine market report subscribers and are $400.00
for non-subscribers.
DATE |
Non-Subscribers Cost |
SUBJECT |
Webinar Type |
May 24, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Status of Carbon Capture
Programs and Technology |
Power |
May 31, 2012 |
$400.00 |
Air Pollution Control Markets
(geographic trends, regulatory
developments, competition,
technology developments) |
Market Intelligence |
June 7, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Dry Sorbents and Systems |
Power |
June 14, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Report from Power Gen Europe
(update on regulations, speaker
and exhibitor highlights) |
Power |
June 21, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Material Handling for Dry
Sorbent Injection |
Power |
June 28, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Greenhouse Gas Strategies for
Coal-fired Plant Operators
|
Power |
July 12, 2012 |
$125.00 |
CFB Technology and Clean Coal
|
Power |
July 19, 2012 |
$400.00 |
Future for Coal, Gas, Nuclear
and Renewables
(forecasts by region and
discussion of market drivers and
regulatory constraints) |
Market Intelligence |
July 26, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Beneficial Byproducts of Coal
Combustion and Gasification |
Power |
August 2, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Mercury Control and Removal
Status and Cost |
Power |
August 9, 2012 |
$400.00 |
Filter Media
(forecasts and market drivers
for media used in air, gas,
liquid, fluid applications both
mobile and stationary)
|
Market Intelligence |
August 16, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Report from Coal-gen (highlights
of speeches and exhibitions) |
Power |
August 23, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Report from Mega Symposium
(highlights of speeches and
exhibitions at this important
air pollution conference) |
Power |
August 30, 2012 |
$400.00 |
Instrumentation for Air, Gas,
Water, Liquids (forecasts
, market shares, growth
segments)
|
Market Intelligence |
September 6, 2012 |
$125.00 |
Production of Fertilizer and
Sulfuric Acid at Coal-fired
Power Plants
|
Power |
Here are the Headlines for the May 18, 2012 – Utility E-Alert
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1075 – May 18, 2012
Table of Contents
ELECTRIC POWER CONFERENCE
COAL – US
COAL – WORLD
GAS / OIL – US
GAS / OIL – WORLD
CO2
BUSINESS
HOT TOPIC HOUR
For more information on the Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System,
click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#42ei.
Investment in Fossil and Nuclear Plants Will Exceed $736 Billion in 2013
Fossil and nuclear power plants will invest $736 billion on new equipment and
repair parts in 2013. Sixty-five percent of the investment will be
in coal-fired power plants. This is the latest finding in Fossil & Nuclear
Power Generation: World Analysis & Forecast, published by the McIlvaine
Company. (wwwmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com)
2013 Fossil-fired and Nuclear Power Generation Market
Technology |
Units |
Coal-fired |
Nuclear |
Gas Turbine |
|||
|
|
Existing |
New |
Existing |
New |
Existing |
New |
Capacity |
GW |
2228 |
128 |
439 |
16 |
1000 |
67 |
Total Investment |
$
Billions |
223 |
256 |
88 |
64 |
45 |
60 |
Combined New and Existing |
$ Billions |
479 |
152 |
105 |
Despite the virtual moratorium on new coal-fired power plants in the U.S., the
rest of the world will spend $256 billion on new coal-fired power plants in
2013. This contrasts with only $60 billion for gas turbine systems. Repair parts
and upgrades of existing coal-fired power plants will generate revenues greater
than the combined new power plant and repair investments by nuclear and gas
turbine combined.
The future competition among these three major fuels will be shaped by a number
of factors. The greatest variable is the quantity of shale gas which can
be economically produced. The U.S. has potentially enough shale gas to
meet present requirements for thirty years. China has even greater reserves but
they are located deeper and will be more expensive to extract.
Furthermore, the Chinese shale gas industry is in its infancy. Even with
its most ambitious plan, China’s gas production would only be eight percent of
that in the U.S. in 2020.
The efforts to reduce greenhouse gases will virtually eliminate new coal-fired
power plants as an option in certain countries but the large investment in these
power plants by other countries will result in coal-fired power continuing to be
the most popular option.
Nuclear generation growth will also be highly regionalized. Some countries will
not only avoid building new nuclear power plants but will phase out existing
ones. Other countries will be big investors in nuclear power.
Nevertheless, this fuel option will continue to remain in third place far behind
coal.
For more information on Fossil & Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis &
Forecast, click on:
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#n043
Ten Top Growth Markets in Air, Water and Energy
For suppliers of products and services for the air, water, and energy industries
there are some substantial double digit growth opportunities. Ten of these have
been identified as the most promising by the McIlvaine Company These are ranked
based on potential market size.
# 1 Shale Gas
There is a very large continuing investment in extraction of gas from shale in
the U.S. The requirement for hydraulic fracturing two miles underground greatly
increases the investment in flow control and treatment products: the U.S. now
has access to reserves which could make it a net exporter or at least self
sufficient for 30 years. The big unknown is the potential in China and the
rest of the world.
Shale Gas Reserves (Trillion m3)
U.S. Total |
25 |
Marcellus U.S. |
13 |
Argentina |
22 |
Europe |
18 |
China |
36 |
U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption in 2011 |
0.8 |
U.S. 2011 Electric Power Consumption with Gas |
0.2 |
China has bigger reserves but they are deeper. There is also a lack of water in
the areas where it will be required. Nevertheless, China plans 60 billion m3
of capacity by 2020.
#2 Vessel Air and Water Treatment
$70 billion will be required to supply 70,000 ships with treatment systems to
ensure that ballast water discharges be free of live invasive species.
Large investments will also be needed to reduce sulfur and NOx
emissions from the ship stacks.
#3 Water Reuse
Power plants and other large water users will accelerate the treatment and use
of wastewater. The co-location of municipal wastewater treatment plants and
either combined cycle gas turbine or coal-fired power plants will be a popular
option. Industrial facilities will increasingly opt to treat and reuse
wastewater rather than discharge it. The investment in treatment systems and
chemicals for this purpose will be substantial.
#4 NOx Control
Coal-fired power plant operators in China are embarked on a huge program to
install DeNOx systems using selective catalytic reduction. In
Europe and the U.S., regulations requiring NOx reduction on trucks
and other vehicles will ensure double-digit growth in this segment. Suppliers of
urea and ammonia will benefit from both the stationary and mobile activity.
#5 Aquaculture
The new generation involving recirculating tanks and efficient filtration is
changing the approach to fish farming. The continuing depletion of wild fish
populations is also a driving factor.
#6 Efficiency Improvements in Fossil Plants
The average age of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. is forty years. The
efforts to prevent new power plant construction in the U.S. and Europe are
forcing operators of existing power plants to modernize. One of the
biggest needs is to replace outdated instrumentation and controls and to make
the power plants much more efficient.
#7 Remediation
The remediation of soil and groundwater is becoming a big business in developing
countries. It will generate $36 billion in revenue this year.
#8 Fine Particulate Reductions
Small particles are increasingly identified as the most harmful contaminants in
air. The resultant legislation will continue to bolster both the mobile and
stack gas markets for reduction technology. Fabric filters will replace
electrostatic precipitators in many cement and power plants.
#9 Management of Solid Waste
Waste-to-energy through combustion of solid wastes or generation of biogas will
replace landfill as a disposal method in developing countries. The U.S. is one
of the few developed countries which tolerate landfills as a solution.
#10 Renewables
The short-term outlook for wind and solar has been negatively impacted by the
shale gas discoveries and production. Cut throat pricing and oversupply
have battered the solar cell manufacturers. Nevertheless, the “renewables”
market will weather the storm and again become healthy.
Information on the above opportunities is contained in a number of McIlvaine
market research reports. For more information, click on:
www.mcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com.
U.S. Industrial Air Emitters to Spend $1 billion/yr for Air Pollution Control
Over the Next Five Years on More than 2000 Specific Projects
Operators of industrial boilers, kilns, pulp mills, mines and incinerators are
facing huge investments to meet recently passed national regulations and
imminent additional regulations by the individual states. The expenditure
will exceed $1 billion/yr over the next five years as thousands of projects
ranging from $100,000 to $25 million will be undertaken. These projects are
identified in the McIlvaine report, U.S. Industrial Emitters. This
database covers over 40,000 industrial sources in the U.S.
Three major national rules have been promulgated. They deal with air toxics and
affect the cement industry, operators of industrial and commercial boilers, and
operators of solid and liquid waste incinerators. There will be extensive
investment in fabric filters to capture the toxic metals. In many cases,
activated carbon or other chemicals will be needed to capture mercury. Removal
of hydrogen chloride will also be necessary and will generate markets for wet
scrubbers. Organics such as the kerogens in limestone used in the cement
industry also generate organic toxics and will create a market for thermal
treatment technologies.
Several thousand plants will be installing new air pollution control systems but
nearly 6,000 plants will be making investments in monitoring and control of
process and combustion operations. Mercury and PM mass monitors are very
expensive but will only be required for 1000 plants. However monitors for CO and
O2 will be required at many plants.
It is likely that rules will be promulgated by individual states which will
force the addition of NOx, SOx and particulate matter (PM)
reduction equipment. This is in addition to that required by the national
standards. The states are required to take whatever actions are necessary to
bring the ambient air quality to a level specified in federal regulations
already promulgated. It will be more cost effective and politically acceptable
to require larger industrial facilities to cut their emissions by fifty percent
than it will be to impose limitations on lawn mowers, grills and the like.
Even though many areas are in attainment with ambient standards, they are upwind
of areas which are in non-attainment. These attainment areas will be subject to
lawsuits by the downwind areas. The end result is that equipment will be
required at many locations and not just within the non-attainment areas.
The discovery of large quantities of shale gas and the resultant low price of
natural gas will ensure the stability and even modest growth in the U.S.
industrial base. As a result, the vast majority of plants will make the
necessary expenditures to remain in business.
For more information on U.S. Industrial Emitters, click on:
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=93extsup1.asp
Solar Technology Advances at a Steady Pace
Each month McIlvaine’s Renewable Energy Projects and Update
reports on advances in solar technology.
NREL, UCLA Certify World Record for Polymer Solar Cell Efficiency
Scientists boosted the significance of tandem polymer solar cells by
successfully testing cells with low-bandgap polymers that achieved certified
conversion efficiencies of 8.62 ± 0.3 percent with respect to standard
terrestrial reporting conditions.
That’s the highest independently measured efficiency for a polymer solar cell,
say researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy’s NREL and UCLA, who
co-authored a report in the February 12 issue of Nature Photonics.
Suntech Sets World Record 20.3 Percent Efficiency for Pluto Cell Technology
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd., announced that its industry-leading Pluto cell
technology set a world record 20.3 percent efficiency for a production cell
using standard commercial-grade p-type silicon wafers.
The Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore has independently confirmed the
20.3 percent efficiency of the improved Pluto cell technology, a significant
improvement over the 19.6 percent best cell efficiency of the first generation
Pluto cell technology. With further optimization, the efficiency of the improved
Pluto cell technology is projected to reach 21.0 percent in the next 6 – 12
months.
One of the key improvements for the Pluto cell technology is the incorporation
of similar high-efficiency characteristics of the record-holding PERL cell
technology in the conventional Pluto cell manufacturing process. These act to
improve the rear surface design of a conventional Pluto cell, primarily by
reducing the metal/silicon interface area while keeping the remaining
non-contacted area well-passivated. In addition, Suntech has introduced process
changes that minimize the use of high temperatures which make it possible to
apply the high efficiency processes to the most commonly used commercial wafers.
Following the laboratory success of the improved Pluto cell technology, Suntech
is now focusing on commercializing the technology.
Solar Frontier Sets New Efficiency World Record
Solar Frontier announced that it has achieved 17.8 percent aperture area
efficiency on a 30cm x 30cm CIS-based photovoltaic submodule in joint research
with Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization
(NEDO). This new record for thin-film CIS technology was accomplished at Atsugi
Research Center (ARC), Solar Frontier’s dedicated research laboratory in Japan
that is the cornerstone of the company’s integrated research and production
framework.
This new record surpasses Solar Frontier’s previous world record of 17.2 percent
set in March 2011.
Solar Frontier’s CIS modules are manufactured at its Kunitomi plant, which
started full commercial operations last year. The technological advances made at
ARC are applied to mass production through Solar Frontier’s integrated research
and production framework, which includes a pilot plant equipped with the
machines on which the gigawatt-scale Kunitomi plant’s machinery is based.
The Kunitomi plant recently produced a champion module at 14.5 percent aperture
efficiency (13.38 percent module efficiency), achieving a 164W rating.
NREL to Invest with Natcore in $150,000 Black Silicon Research Project
Following the granting of their exclusive licensing agreement with National
Renewable Energy Laboratory, Natcore Technology Inc. has entered a Cooperative
Research & Development Agreement with NREL. Under the terms of the CRADA,
Natcore and NREL would work together to reach two goals:
·
Reduce solar cell costs by 2 percent – 3 percent, and;
·
Increase solar panel energy output from 3 percent to 10 percent over the course
of a day without the aid of a solar tracking mechanism.
These goals would be accomplished by combining Natcore’s patented liquid phase
deposition (LPD) technology with NREL’s technologies for creating a black
silicon antireflective layer integrated into high-efficiency solar cells. The
feasibility of the combined technologies working together has already been
demonstrated in an earlier Natcore/NREL effort that produced a cell with 16.5
percent efficiency.
NREL holds the world record for a cell made with black silicon at 18.6 percent
but they had to make it using a passivation technology that requires thermal
oxidation. Natcore will replace that cumbersome step with its LPD oxide process.
The combination of the two technologies could significantly exceed NREL’s record
cell efficiency.
Under the terms of the CRADA, the parties will spend $150,000 to reach the
stated goals. That amount may be increased if both parties so agree. The initial
CRADA has a duration of one year.
Innovative 3-D Designs from an MIT Team Can More than Double the Solar Power
Generated from a Given Area
Intensive research around the world has focused on improving the performance of
solar photovoltaic cells and bringing down their cost. But very little attention
has been paid to the best ways of arranging those cells, which are typically
placed flat on a rooftop or other surface, or sometimes attached to motorized
structures that keep the cells pointed toward the sun as it crosses the sky.
Now, a team of MIT researchers has come up with a very different approach:
building cubes or towers that extend the solar cells upward in 3-D
configurations. Amazingly, the results from the structures they’ve tested show
power output ranging from double to more than 20 times that of fixed flat panels
with the same base area.
The biggest boosts in power were seen in the situations where improvements are
most needed: in locations far from the equator, in winter months and on cloudier
days. The new findings, based on both computer modeling and outdoor testing of
real modules, have been published in the journal Energy and Environmental
Science.
Solar3D’s
New Tests Reveal Game Changing Solar Cell
Solar3D, Inc., the developer of a breakthrough 3-D solar cell technology to
maximize the conversion of sunlight into electricity, announced that it has
completed a detailed simulation analysis comparing its breakthrough solar cell
with conventional solar cells. The results reveal that the company’s
breakthrough solar cell can produce 200 percent of the power output of
conventional solar cells.
The company’s innovative single wafer silicon solar cell is based on a
3-dimensional design with two very powerful and unique patent-pending features:
wide angle light collection and high conversion efficiency. The Solar3D cell has
a special wide-angle feature on the surface that can capture more light in the
morning and evening hours, as well as in the winter months when the sun is not
directly overhead. The Solar3D cell also uses a 3-dimensional design to increase
the electricity generation efficiency by trapping sunlight inside photovoltaic
microstructures, which are etched into the wafer, where photons bounce around
until they are converted into electrons. These two features are combined into a
single solar cell design to deliver unprecedented performance.
For more information on Renewable Energy Projects and Update
please visit
http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Renewable_Energy_Projects_Brochure/renewable_energy_projects_brochure.htm
----------
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
Copyright © 2012 McIlvaine Company. All Rights Reserved
191 Waukegan Road Suite 208 | Northfield | IL 60093
Ph: 847-784-0012 | Fax: 847-784-0061
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