Remote Support is a $1.6 Billion Potential Business for Precipitator Product and Service Companies
The supply of services and parts is a potential $1.6 billion /yr. business for suppliers of electrostatic precipitator systems, components, remote monitoring software, advisory and maintenance services. This is the recent finding in N018 Electrostatic Precipitator World Market published by the McIlvaine Company.
Metric 2017 2021
Utility Precipitators Installed GW 2200 2440
Utility Air Flow cfm (m3/h) millions 6600 (11,000) 7320 (12,200)
Industrial Precip Air Flow cfm (m3/h) millions 660 (1,100) 732 (1,220)
Total Air Flow cfm (m3/h) millions 7260 (12,100) 8052 (13,220)
O&M Cost ($0.60/cfm) $ millions 4,356 4,931
Third Party Potential Revenues ($0.20/cfm) $ millions 1,452 1,610
Third party potential revenues are 20 cents/cfm. This creates a potential market next year of $1.4 billion rising by $200 million in 2021 to $1.6 billion. Included in this total are the following:
• Remote monitoring 24/7 of precipitator performance
• Advisory or direct intervention to adjust operating parameters
• Training of operators
• Expert advice monthly or more often if warranted
• Supply of parts for the precipitators, dust conveying and energy management
• Other service
This opportunity is already being pursued by several types of organizations:
• Boiler system companies (Alstom, Doosan, Mitsubishi)
• Precipitator suppliers (FLSmidth, Longking, Feida)
• Parts suppliers (B&W has both the boilers and parts)
• Integral Component suppliers (NWL has remote systems focused on the energy management)
• Auxiliary component suppliers (valves, fans)
• Service companies (Neuendorfer)
• Specialized consulting (TRK provides 24/7 monitoring and emergency advice along with monthly reports and meetings)
• General consulting companies (Sargent & Lundy, Burns & McDonnell)
• Continuous emissions monitoring system providers (Thermo Fisher, Sick)
• Software suppliers (GE, Wind River, OSI Soft)
• Digital processing hardware (ABB, Yokogawa)
The acceleration in interest and investment in the Internet of things (IoT) coupled with increasing complexity of precipitator operations make third party services increasingly attractive. Many of the precipitators now being installed are in Asian and African countries where precipitator knowledge is lacking. TRK has demonstrated the value in making instant expertise available. Subject matter experts abound in the U.S. where the number of precipitators in operation is shrinking. This talent can be applied to help operators thousands of miles away thanks to the increasingly sophisticated digital communications.
Remote services for precipitators have been in development for 30 years. Services for other power plant components can be developed based on the precipitator experience. This provides the opportunity to expand into third party services for the entire power plant. McIlvaine projects this potential at $125 billion/yr. for third party services for the full range of power plants including nuclear, fossil and renewable.
For more information click on: N018 Electrostatic Precipitator World Market
NOx Control Market Opportunity is $38 Billion Per Year
Suppliers of NOx reduction products and services have an opportunity to generate sales of more than $38 billion per year. No one technology provides a complete solution. Minimizing the generation of NOx needs to be combined in a series of reduction steps. New technologies are providing opportunities for greater NOx reduction at modest cost. McIlvaine recently conducted 9 hours of webinars for one utility which resulted in a NOx control path which was more cost effective than the conventional approach.
The knowledge regarding marrying these technologies for optimum NOx control is particularly well suited to India where a big NOx control program has been initiated. Operators of the existing 187,000 MW of plants will have to spend $8 billion to meet standards for existing units. Small units built prior to 2003 are tasked with reductions as low as 15 percent. Units larger than 500 MW will have to make NOx reductions of 50 percent or more. New units built after 2015 will need to remove 85 percent of the NOx at an annual investment of $1.5 billion. Full scale SCR (or catalytic filtration) will be needed for the new units but unique combinations of technologies will be the best option for the older units.
The world market opportunity combines the revenues for existing NOx control systems as well as for new plants.
Annual NOx Control Market for Utilities and Industrial Plants 2017- 2022
Segment $ Millions/yr.
Coal-fired power
New SCR systems 8,000
Balance of plant investments (e.g.) fan upgrades 5,000
Replacement catalyst and reagents 4,800
Subtotal 17,800
Potential O&M with remote monitoring 12,000
Coal-fired power total 29,800
Gas turbine and industrial total 9,000
Total all industries 38,800
Important factors shaping the market are:
• Continuing concern over smog in large cities around the world
• Retrofit of coal-fired boilers in Asia
• Large inventory of SCR systems in developed countries
• CHP and distributed generation
• Technology developments:
o Combustion optimization software
o Improved instrumentation for in furnace measurements
o Remote monitoring
o Third party O&M capability
o New chemicals for reduction and oxidation
o Catalytic filtration
o Greenhouse CO2 fertilization with gas engines
Since NOx control requires application of multiple technologies working together it is desirable to utilize monitoring systems which measure parameters starting with the amount of fuel being consumed, the performance of each burner, the quantities of chemicals and the measurement of NOx, O2, CO, and CO2 at various process points. Remote monitoring allows access and advice by experts. This then leads to the opportunity for third party O&M. Presently, this services is very common for rotating parts such as turbines. It is being used for electrostatic precipitator operations. NOx control offers another segment where third party O&M will be cost effective. It is a $12 billion /yr. opportunity.
For more information click on N035 NOx Control World Market
$125 Billion/yr. Power Plant IoT Instrumentation, Software and Service Opportunity
World electricity consumption is 25,000 terawatt hours per year. Generation of this electricity costs $2.5 trillion per year. Machine to machine communication in combination with remote monitoring and service has the potential to reduce this cost by 5 percent and create a $125 billion dollar per year opportunity. This is the latest forecast in a special ongoing analysis included in N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market.
The opportunity incorporates, smart instrumentation, component monitoring, digital data generation at the plant, software programs, remote monitoring, third party operation and maintenance and a combination of subject matter experts and data analytics.
Smart Instrumentation
The opportunity is shaped by the ability of sensors to accurately detect the flow of liquids, gases, air, water and solids. The quality of the flow is also critical. Continuous emissions monitoring systems measure the air contaminants such as NOx, SO2 and particulate. New regulations have added the need to measure mercury in the exhaust gas and selenium in the wastewater. The temperature, moisture and particulate levels for lubricating fluids used in the rotating equipment are also important.
The need for accurate injection extends to corrosion and scale inhibitors, biocides, pH adjusters, polymers for wastewater treatment and many new chemicals needed for air and water pollution control. These include activated carbon, lime, limestone, ammonia and urea.
Ambient air and water measurement needs include wind measurement for wind turbine optimization, ambient air and water measurement in areas surrounding the plant and many predictive weather measurements for solar and wind operations.
All of these measurements are being enhanced by the development of smart sensors. Tunable diode lasers allow measurement of O2 at critical points in the combustion zone. The incorporation of an analysis function within the instrument itself rather than through the distributed control system has cost advantages and more importantly shortens response time.
Suppliers of this instrumentation are found in the McIlvaine Air and Water Monitoring report in many categories and sub categories.
Measurement Categories Examples
Function Analysis, extraction, integration, display, services, consumables, accessories
Medium Ambient air and water, process liquids and gases, solids, oil, injection chemicals
Properties Measured Physical, chemical, electrical, other
Measurement Parameters Count, weight, volume, temperature, pressure, contaminants, viscosity
Operating Principles Chemical, electrochemical, light, opacity
Mode of Use Continuous, hand held, laboratory, process
The opportunity varies widely depending on the fuel source. Coal represents the largest potential because it is the leading type of generation and has high needs for measurement.
Instrumentation Market Size by Medium Measured
Fuel Source Weather Water Air Process Liquids Process Gases Solids
Coal S H H M M H
Nuclear S H M H H M
Gas S M H S S S
Solar L S S S S S
Wind L S L S S S
Biomass S S L S S L
Geothermal S M L H H S
Hydro S H S S S S
L= large, M= medium, S= small
Component Monitoring
Condition monitoring of components is well established for lubrication systems for turbines, compressors, etc. The growth opportunities are in measuring not only the health but also the operational information of valves, pumps, filters, separators and other components. Mann + Hummel recognizes this opportunity and has just invested in a large filtration IoT research center in Singapore. Pentair, Flowserve and other pump and valve suppliers are rapidly strengthening their component monitoring capabilities.
Digital Data Generation at the Plant
GE says that coal-fired power plants could be made approximately 4 percent more efficient with 2.5 percent improvement in efficiencies coming from turbine and boiler upgrades, and 1.5 percent coming from software improvements. The analysis also found that applying all potential upgrades to coal-fired power plants can remove 900 million metric tons of CO2 (11 percent of total coal power emissions) - more than the annual CO2 output of the United Kingdom and France combined.
McIlvaine has conducted nine hours of webinars for PacifiCorp with presentations by GE, Emerson, Siemens and others which pointed the way to large savings with combustion optimization. The reduction in NOx emissions was particularly significant.
Software Programs
The software programs include partnerships between power plant system suppliers and specialized software providers. GE says Predix will enable GE to lead the next generation of industrial progress, through improved manufacturing processes and digitally manufactured products, transforming GE into a stronger and more valuable company. GE believes its digital business will grow GE’s software and analytics enterprise from $6 billion in 2015 to a top 10 software company by 2020. GE has purchased NEUCO who has developed neural networks to control not only the operation of the furnace but also components such as soot blowers.
General software participants include large companies such as Intel with its Wind River subsidiary and specialist companies such as OSIsoft and SoftDEL.
Remote Monitoring
The large gas turbine suppliers have remote monitoring centers which primarily track the health of rotating parts. This is frequently part of the warrantee program. However, companies such as MHPS are branching out to monitor more of the plant’s components. MHPS just opened a remote monitoring center in the Philippines which is monitoring coal-fired power plants. The service center can also provide assistance to power plants not built by MHPS. In addition to its data analysis capabilities, the center can also manage maintenance equipment and dispatch staff in emergency situations. It will, in addition, serve as a training hub for technicians. Every year, around 200 individuals will be picked from both in and outside the company to transfer technical expertise on maintenance and management.
There is a huge potential for companies such as MHPS and GE to work with other suppliers and incorporate hundreds of individual remote monitoring programs. For example, Nalco operates an around the clock monitoring center on water quality. If companies such as Mann + Hummel can operate filter monitoring centers and, if all the results are integrated for analysis and action, it will greatly improve the support for the operators.
There is a big potential for interconnection of facilities in large utility organizations. McIlvaine has been involved with a program for Berkshire Hathaway Energy.
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/decisions/28-energy/1185-4s01
Duke Power has developed central systems which can for example monitor all the pumps at its various stations. However, it is shifting away from the traditional centralized proprietary systems and evolving to support distributed intelligence, interoperability and IoT. Efforts to develop its smart grid have resulted in the enablement of these concepts through what the industry calls OpenFMB (Open Field Message Bus).
Third Party Support for Power Plant Operations and Maintenance
Third party operation and maintenance represents the biggest revenue opportunity for IoT in the power industry.
GE Energy is one of the world’s largest third party providers of plant Operation and Maintenance services, currently with more than 16,000 MW at 60 sites in 17 countries under O&M contract. Global resources combined with over 20 years of O&M experience, enable GE to provide complete plant services across the turbine island and balance of plant—for both GE and non-GE equipment.
Siemens, MHPS, IHI and other turbine suppliers also offer similar services. There are a number of companies specializing in O&M including large companies such as Wood and smaller companies such as Ethos Energy and Proenergy. Uniper and India Power have formed a joint venture to support operations and maintenance at Indian power plants.
Data Analytics and Subject Matter Experts
The generation of large amounts of data is not of value unless it is properly analyzed for action. XLMPR recommends hybrid data analytics marrying the experience based models with ones based on physics and data. The IoT greatly increases the capability for database models but this data needs to be molded by experience. Subject matter experts are needed to provide the niche expertise in each of thousands of areas. The pool of recently retired people can be tapped for their unique combination of knowledge and availability for short engagements.
The analysis and forecast of IoT instrumentation, software and service opportunities in Power Generation is included as a special report in N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market
Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a Weekly Basis
Here are some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1303 – December 30, 2016
Table of Contents
COAL – US

• Regional Haze Ruling boosts Texas Scrubber Market
• NRG Energy, Inc. converts four of its Power Plants from Coal to Natural Gas
• FPL to retire 250 MW Coal-fired Cedar Bay Power Plant in Jacksonville, FL December 31
COAL – WORLD

• Korea to close 10 aged Coal-fired Power Plants by 2025
• City in China's Shandong Province orders Coal-fired Power Plants to cut output due to Smog Notice
• Australia lobbies China-led AIIB to add Coal to lending priorities
• Two Power Plants of 1320 MW to be installed at Gaddani
• Nalco Partners with NTPC Ltd on New 1 MTPA Aluminum Smelter in Odisha
• Doosan Heavy wins $2.3 Billion Contract to build Coal-fired Power Plants in India
• India’s NTPC commissions First Unit at 4 GW Kudgi Supercritical Thermal Power Plant
• Duyên Hải-2 has started Construction
• Duyên Hải-3 (2 x 622.5 MW) and Duyên Hải-3 Extension (660 MW) to be completed in 2019
• Energa and Enea invite bids to develop Ostroleka C Power Project in Poland
• South Africa’s Kusile Power Station’s Unit 1 connected to the National Grid
• Thai Binh 2 Thermal Power Plant 65 Percent Complete
• Ducon receives another FGD Contract in India
• Mitsubishi Hitachi signs Supply Contract for FGD System at Ugljevik Thermal Power Plant in West Balkans
• Mahagenco Koradi will install FGD
• India Environmentalist forecasts 300 Percent increase in Coal-fired Power
• Unicon is active in ESPs and other APC in India
The 41F Utility E-Alert is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the $3020 42EI Utility Tracking System which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many other features.
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com