Connecting Things, People, Intelligence, Niche Experts and Wise Crowds for Power
Industry Decisions
GE, Emerson, Siemens and many other companies are creating software to connect
things. There is a large potential for this in power generation.
This potential was reflected in a number of papers and displays at the recent
PowerGen Asia exhibition.
“We believe the success of our power generation customers will be more and more
supported by the intelligent use of data generated by ever increasing
connectivity of devices. The integration of those data with people expertise and
knowledge will create additional services in a cycle delivering unprecedented
knowledge of the behavior and potential of their assets,” said Marco Sanguineti,
Head of Technology for ABB’s Power Generation business unit.
McIlvaine recently conducted nine hours of webinars focused on a problem for one
utility. Presentations by Siemens, GE and Emerson addressed the
optimization route to a lowest total cost of ownership (TCO) solution but the
participants (wise crowd) concluded that incorporating innovative new
technologies and components would be equally important in a system which would
provide the lowest TCO.
Companies such as ABB are integrating the data from many thousands of sensors
which are monitoring thousands of pumps, valves, mixers, fans, compressors,
burners, conveyors, filters, etc. In a large utility with multiple plants,
there are hundreds of individuals with specialized knowledge that may be
valuable in a specific lowest TCO determination. As a result, there are likely
to be many thousands of people who can contribute to the decision-making
process. How do you take advantage of all this niche expertise?
Jeff Immelt of GE observed that the power industry needs to adopt the “hurry up”
attitude of Silicon Valley in developing new technology. McIlvaine
believes that this “hurry up” mode can best be achieved by decision systems
which interconnect machines with people, intelligent databases and systems,
niche experts and wise crowds. Systems have been created which provide the
four knowledge needs: Alerts, Answers, Analysis and Advancement. The
newest addition has been to supplement periodic webinars with very focused
LinkedIn discussion groups. These groups facilitate “wise crowd” decisions
by addressing all the criteria needed for a “wise crowd” to function properly.
Wise Crowd Criteria and LinkedIn Role
Criteria |
Description |
LinkedIn role |
|
Diversity of Opinion |
Each person should have private
information. |
Small LinkedIn discussion groups
lend themselves to extracting
the niche expertise and unique
ideas. |
|
Independence |
People's opinions aren't
determined by the opinions of
those around them. |
The small LinkedIn discussion
groups are not subject to the
peer pressure of the large
webinars. McIlvaine
editors then integrate the
conclusions reached in the
discussion groups. |
|
Decentralization |
People can specialize and draw
on local knowledge. |
The small LinkedIn discussion
group is the ideal way to
extract the local knowledge and
benefit from niche expert
participation. |
|
Aggregation |
Some mechanism exists for
turning private judgments into a
collective decision. |
The LinkedIn discussion groups
are a bridge between analyses
and webinars which result in the
collective decisions. |
|
The LinkedIn discussion groups are an important part of the entire
interconnection system between:
·
Separate individuals and divisions within a supplier conglomerate
·
Separate individuals and divisions within a utility conglomerate
·
Separate individuals and divisions within a consulting company
·
The final interconnection between all the many individuals in each of the above
Supplier knowledge can be transmitted through individuals who are encouraged by
management to focus on becoming more expert. These individuals will be
“rainmakers.” If they demonstrate that their company has the knowledge and
the products to provide the lowest TCO, they can be very effective in boosting
sales.
The same is true of consulting companies. However, the challenge will be to
offer just enough expertise to achieve the rainmaking without reducing the
potential actual consulting revenues.
The LinkedIn discussion groups are incorporated in three Decision Guides:
4S01 Berkshire Hathaway Energy Supplier and Utility Connect
44I
Coal fired Power Plant Decisions (formerly
PPAQD)
59D Gas
Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Decisions
Filtration Market Rankings Change with Two Acquisitions
Two significant mergers in the filtration industry have taken place in the last
month. Lydall has acquired Gutsche and Parker Hannifin has acquired
Clarcor. Lydall’s acquisition is relatively small but their increase in market
share is large. Parker Hannifin’s acquisition is large but their increase
in market share is relatively small. One reason for this is that Lydall is
nearer the beginning of the supply chain where total revenues are less.
The second reason is that Lydall has focused on a niche market, whereas the
Parker acquisition is much broader based.
Lydall, Inc. has entered an agreement to acquire MGF Gutsche GmbH & Co. KG
(“Gutsche”) for approximately $58 million in cash. The
business consists of operations in Germany and China. Gutsche’s fiscal year ends
on December 31, 2016 and revenue and EBITDA for these operations are forecasted
by Gutsche to be approximately $50 million and $6 million, respectively.
Lydall has recently acquired Texcel and they purchased Andrew several years ago.
These previous acquisitions plus Gutsche are providing Lydall with a market
share approaching 20 percent in high performance non-woven media for fabric
filters.
Fabric Filter Bag and Media
Revenues 2016 $
Millions |
|
Bags |
3,000 |
Media |
1,680 |
High Performance Non-Woven Media |
800 |
Lydall High Performance
Non-Woven Media |
90-120 |
Gutsche High Performance
Non-Woven Media |
45 |
Total High Performance Non-Woven
Media |
135-165 |
Lydall % of High Performance
Non-Woven Media |
17-20% |
Other competitors in the high performance non-woven area for fabric filters are
BWF, Xiamen Savings and Testori. An increasing number of Asian suppliers have
also entered the market.
Parker Hannifin will acquire Clarcor for $4.3 billion. Clarcor is a diversified
manufacturer of mobile, industrial and environmental filtration products with
annual sales of approximately $1.4 billion and 6000 employees worldwide. Clarcor
brands include Clarcor, Baldwin, Fuel Manager, PECOFacet, Airguard, Altair, BHA,
Clearcurrent, Clark Filter, Hastings, United Air Specialists, Keddeg and
Purolator. The acquisition of Clarcor adds a broad range of industrial air and
liquid filtration products and technologies to Parker Hannifin’s filtration
portfolio. With approximately 80 percent of Clarcor’s revenue generated through
aftermarket sales, the acquisition is expected to significantly increase
recurring revenue in Parker Hannifin’s Filtration Group.
Filtration Revenues 2016 $
millions |
|||
Segment |
Total Filtration |
Mobile, Hydraulic
Compressed Air |
Industrial/
Environmental |
Clarcor Revenue 2015 |
1400 |
590 |
810 |
Parker Filtration and Engineered
Materials |
2500 |
2300 |
200 |
Total Filtration |
3900 |
2890 |
1010 |
Market Share |
3% |
6% |
2% |
Gas Turbine Inlet Air |
100 |
|
100 |
Gas Turbine Market Share |
18% |
|
18% |
Process Liquid Filtration |
100 |
|
100 |
Market Share |
2% |
|
2% |
The combined company has full portfolios in some segments of filtration and
partial in others and is not a player in many segments.
Parker Clarcor Combination |
||
Filter Type |
Portfolio Coverage |
Market Ranking |
Fuel Filters - Mobile |
100% |
High |
Oil Filters - Mobile |
75% |
High |
Air Filters - Mobile |
75% |
High |
Hydraulic Filters - Industrial |
100% |
High |
Industrial HVAC |
100% |
High |
Compressed Air |
100% |
High |
Gas Turbine Inlet Air |
100% |
High |
Natural Gas Coalescer |
100% |
Medium |
Cartridge Filters for Process
Liquids and Water |
75% |
Low |
Dust Collector Bags |
100% |
High |
Catalytic Treatment |
10% |
Low |
Scrubbing and Acid Gas Removal |
0 |
Low |
Cross Flow Membranes |
0 |
Low |
Sedimentation and Centrifugation |
0 |
Low |
Liquid Macrofiltration |
0 |
Low |
The new Parker will be a leader in dust collector bags. They buy the roll
goods from companies such as Lydall. Clarcor has moved vertically to
manufacture media for HVAC but is a small player in roll goods manufacturing.
Parker has expanded and is a major player in filter elements. It is not
competing in system work except in some narrow areas such as gas turbine inlet
filtration. However, because of the fractured nature of the filtration
industry, it is a market leader in an expanded number of segments thanks to this
acquisition.
The market shares of suppliers are continually tracked in:
2ABC
Scrubber/Adsorber/Biofilter Knowledge Systems
3ABC FGD
and DeNOx Knowledge Systems
4ABC
Electrostatic Precipitator Knowledge Systems
N007
Thermal Catalytic World Air Pollution Markets
N024
Cartridge Filters: World Market
N006
Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets
N005
Sedimentation and Centrifugation World Markets
N022 Air
Filtration and Purification World Market
N064
Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market
Coalescer Supplier Program
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/28-energy/1124-n065.
Utility E-Alert Tracks Billions of Dollars of New Coal-fired Power Plants on a
Weekly Basis
Here are some Headlines from the Utility E-Alert
UTILITY E-ALERT
#1300 – December 2, 2016
Table of Contents
COAL – US
COAL – WORLD
The
41F Utility E-Alert
is issued weekly and covers the coal-fired projects, regulations and other
information important to the suppliers. It is $950/yr. but is included in the
$3020
42EI Utility Tracking System
which has data on every plant and project plus networking directories and many
other features.
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Bob McIlvaine
President
847-784-0012 ext. 112
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
www.mcilvainecompany.com