Mcilvaine Insights
	No. 113   July 29, 2019

---

WELCOME

Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.

· Selling to the 500 Coal Plant Owners who make 99 percent of the Purchases

· India will be a Major Purchaser of Dry Scrubbers

· Coal Fired Power Plant Silobusters

· MBR will be the McIlvaine Silobuster at WEFTEC

· Monthly Overview of the World Air Pollution Markets and Technology

· June 2019 Cleanroom Market Updates

· Weekly Updates to Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining

Selling to the 500 Coal Plant Owners who make 99 percent of the Purchases

Suppliers of Combust, Flow, and Treat (CFT) products and services for coal fired power can now develop sales programs focused on each individual owner. Coal fired power represents one of the largest markets for CFT product suppliers. In the last 20 years an average of 50,000 MW per year of new coal fired power plants have been added to the world generation capacity. Over the next ten years 40,000 MW per year of new capacity will be added. This will be partially offset by retirement of 13,000 MW per year of existing capacity.

Annual new plant investment will exceed $160 billion per year. The installed base of plants has now reached 2 million MW and will increase by 270,000 MW over the next decade. The investment in the installed base exceeds $4 trillion. Potential for third party upgrades, repair, service, and remote operation will exceed $200 billion per year. This includes major environmental upgrades in India and other countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa.

McIlvaine has compiled enough information on each process at each plant to enable relatively precise forecasting as per the following example for valves.

Corporate Name: EVN	Unit size: MW 660
Plant Name: Genco 3 Vinh Tan 2	Vinh Tân commune, Tuy Phong district, Bình Thu?n province. Vietnam
Unit #   1	Specific product purchases 2019 $1000
Forecasts can be supplied for sixteen types of valves, four types of pumps, actuators, limestone, lime, precipitator internals, dust bags, gas instrumentation, liquid instrumentation, controls, treatment chemicals, ammonia, urea, catalyst, cartridges, dewatering filter belts, membrane modules, linings, nozzles, mist eliminators, fans, air compressors, oxidation compressors, motors, VFD, seals, packing, hose, couplings, compressed air filters, lubrication filters	Ball valves $170,000
	Butterfly Valves: $120,000
	Globe Valves $190,000
	Plug Valves: $100,000
	Gate Valves: $150,000

Seventy percent of the purchasing decisions for existing plants are made by 27 companies with more than 10,000 MW of capacity. However, 150 owners are making the decisions for 70 percent of the new plants. Five hundred owners will purchase 99 perent of CFT products for new and existing plants.

Coal Fired Capacity for Individual Owners
Above MW	Planned Cumulative #	Operating Cumulative #
80,000		1
60,000		2
50,000		3
40,000		3
30,000		8
20,000	2	10
10,000	8	27
5000	25	63
3000	50	110
2000	70	164
1500	90	196
1000	150	255
700	200	307
500	250	379
300	300	491
200	350	570
100	400	710
? 100		900

Country Forecasts are based on aggregating forecasts for individual owners.

Coal Plants by Country (MW) Installed Base
Country	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Albania	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Argentina	350	350	350	350	350	350	350
Australia	24,442	24,442	24,442	24,442	24,442	24,442	24,442
Austria	635	635	635	635	635	635	635
Bangladesh	525	1,200	2,500	5,500	8,000	10,000	12,000
Belarus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Belgium	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bosnia & Herzegovina	2,073	2,073	2,073	2,073	2,073	3,000	4,000
Botswana	600	600	732	732	732	1,200	1,200
Brazil	2,804	2,804	2,804	2,804	2,804	3,400	3,400
· EON
· EDP
· Electrobas

Brazil Plant Details

Unit	Sponsor	Parent	Capacity (MW)	Year	City	State
MPX Itaqui power project	Eneva	E.ON, EBX Group	360	2013	Itaqui	Maranhão
Porto do Pecém I Unit 1	Eneva, EDP Energias do Brasil	Eneva, EDP	365	2012	São Gonçalo do Amarante	Ceará
Porto do Pecém I Unit 2	Eneva, EDP Energias do Brasil	Eneva, EDP	365	2013	São Gonçalo do Amarante	Ceará
Porto do Pecém II Unit 1	Eneva	E.ON, Eneva	365	2013	São Gonçalo do Amarante	Ceará
Porto do Pecém-1Unit 1	EDP Energias do Brasil	EDP	365	2012	São Goncalo do Amarante	Ceará
Porto do Pecém-1 Unit 2	EDP Energias do Brasil	EDP	365	2013	São Goncalo do Amarante	Ceará
Porto do Pecém-2 Unit 1	Eneva	E.ON, EBX Group	365	2013	São Goncalo do Amarante	Ceará
Presidente Médici-A Unit 1	Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica	Eletrobras	63	1974	Candiota	Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-A Unit 2	Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica	Eletrobras	63	1974	Candiota	Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-B Unit 1	Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica	Eletrobras	160	1986	Candiota	Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-B Unit 2	Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica	Eletrobras	160	1987	Candiota	Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-C Unit 1	Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica	Electrobras	350	2010	Candiota	Rio Grande do Sul

High quality forecasts now allow a supplier to project purchases for each owner. A large percentage of coal plant CFT products are purchased based on decisions of a group and a consensus built up over time. Therefore the continuous pursuit rather than response to a sales lead is more productive The larger purchasers can be pursued differently than those in the middle or those at the bottom. Here are utilities in the middle with 6000 – 9000 MW range of existing and planned capacity.  J Power is the only company appearing on both lists.

Planned Coal Fired
Company	MW
Power Finance Corporation	8,000
Egyptian Electricity Holding Company	7,920
KEPCO	7,698
China Resources	7,035
NLC India	6,700
TANGEDCO	6,640
J-POWER	6,356
Eskom	6,352
UPRVUNL	6,270

Operating Coal Fired
Company	MW
E.ON	8,772
J-POWER	8,482
Inter RAO	8,372
Vedanta Resources	8,327
Xcel Energy	7,915
Henan Investment Group	7,840
Beijing Energy Group	7,772
Engie	7,387
Damodar Valley Corporation	7,240
AES	7,025

The CFT purchases can all be related to existing and new MW. Details on each process for each owner also are important. McIlvaine has details on FGD, SCR, precipitators, fabric filters, and other components in databases which have been compiled and augmented since the 1970s.

The combustion segmentations are by boiler design e.g. fluid bed or pulverized coal. Also the efficiency division: subcritical, supercritical, and ultra-supercritical is important. China is upgrading more than 100,000 MW of sub critical and supercritical to ultrasupercritical.

Intake water, boiler feedwater, type of cooling, wet FGD, and wastewater treatment can be identified. A number of plants are improving their wastewater treatment and often opting for zero liquid discharge and maximum water reuse.

Solid waste is a challenge due to increasingly stringent standards. Switching from wet to dry flyash handling and dewatering ponded flyash are major opportunities. Byproduct sales potential is also a driver.

Various air pollution control approaches are used for reducing SO₂, NO_x, particulate, mercury, VOCs and even CO₂ (sequestering). It is impossible to make precise determinations for each plant because of variations in the fuel and other site specific factors. Rules of thumb provide a relatively accurate way of forecasting as per the following sorbent example.

The coal fired power industry is unique in that relatively few companies make nearly all the purchases. Details on their operations are available. This means that a CFT supplier can structure his sales program around these specific companies and pursue the most profitable markets. This program is explained at www.mcilvainecompany.com.

Details on coal plants by country and on the individual plants are tabulated in 42EI Utility Tracking System.

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 784 0013, cell 847 226 2391, email rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

India will be a Major Purchaser of Dry Scrubbers

India is predicted to purchase dry scrubbers to clean 180 million cfm over the next five years. This is the latest forecast in N027 FGD Market and Strategies. The bulk of the investment will be for coal fired power plants. There will be some installations in waste to energy, cement, steel and other industrial applications.

India will join China and the U.S. as the leading three dry scrubber purchasers. Dry scrubbing includes semi dry scrubbers, circulating dry scrubbers and direct sorbent injection. United Conveyor Corporation has an order for 4 x 250 MW direct sorbent injection systems at the Dadri plant of NTPC.

The market surge will be due to new rules that allow older smaller power plants to discharge higher levels of SO₂ than others. It is anticipated that 50,000 MW of Indian power plans will be fitted with dry scrubbers over the next three years.

Dry scrubbers are more economical than wet scrubbers when the emission rates are higher and the sulfur in the fuel is lower. Dry scrubbers use higher cost lime or sodium compounds whereas wet scrubbers utilize ground limestone. However, the capital cost of wet scrubbers is more than twice that of CDS and semi dry scrubbers. Direct sorbent injection is very low in capital cost but very high in reagent cost.

Direct sorbent injection can be used to supplement other systems. DSI can be used in conjunction with semi dry systems to maintain efficiency at higher sulfur levels. DSI can also be used ahead of the air heater to react with SO₃ and allow the air heater to be operated to extract more heat without corrosion.

For more information on this report click on N027 FGD Market and Strategies

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at office 847 784 0013 cell 847 226 2391 or email him at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

Coal Fired Power Plant Silobusters

Busting the fifty year old knowledge silo is tough but it can be useful. In the 1960s the U.S. utilities were operating relatively inefficient precipitators. Suddenly there was legislation requiring SO₂ reduction. The situation is very similar to that in India today. At the time there was technology developed to optimize the installation of FGD while improving particulate performance. It was found that when FGD follows inefficient precipitators it will remove substantial particulate. A number of Indian utilities are hoping that the installation of wet FGD will bring down particulate emissions enough to meet the new limits.

The first U.S. FGD systems replaced precipitators because particulate limits were high. Utilities relied on a two-step reduction when limits were tightened. Later on, when limits were tightened again to the present levels, it was necessary to utilize precipitators or baghouses to meet the limits.

Much of the knowledge gained at the time has been buried. There has been little interest in the ability of FGD scrubbers to reduce particulate. But now with the new regulations in India this will be an important subject.

One option, which could be important is the rod deck module. It is more efficient than a spray tower and also better at removing particulate. It can be designed for ½ “ pressure drop per stage or in the case of foundry cupolas, 120” pressure drop per stage depending on the quantity and size of particulate to be removed. It acts  exactly like a venturi scrubber. To meet the 0.l lb./MMBtu limits circa 1980 Minnesota Power installed a 15” pressure drop venturi ahead of the SO₂ scrubber and eliminated the precipitator.

Indian utilities that do not  meet the particulate standards after the installation of spray towers will have the option of installing a rod deck in the spray tower.  Many companies offer variations on the rod deck.  Andritz launched a new design rod deck  design recently

Details on this option are analyzed in 44I Coal Fired Power Plant Decisions.

MBR will be the McIlvaine Silobuster at WEFTEC

At WEFTEC last year the McIlvaine Silobuster effort was all around struvite Municipal Wastewater Services. This year the focus will be on membrane bioreactors (MBR). Each exhibit stand and speech will be included in an MBR Guide. This guide will extend to all relevant components and services. For example Microdyn Nadir will be displaying membrane modules while Andritz will be displaying fine screens especially designed to keep the membranes clean. Howden will be displaying the blowers to provide the MBR aeration. Individuals who want to offer and obtain knowledge will also be identified along with their cell phone numbers to facilitate the silo busting during the show.

WEFTEC will be in Chicago September 21-25. If you want to participate in the MBR Silobuster program contact Bob McIlvaine at 847 784 0013 or cell 847 226 2391 email: rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

Monthly Overview of the World Air Pollution Markets and Technology

For just $950/yr you can receive this monthly newsletter and can search past issues for the last 20 years. It is a unique management tool.

GOLD DUST The “Air Pollution Management” Newsletter, July 2019, No. 495

· Join the Debate On Insitu Rare Earth Recovery

· Coal By-products Including Rare Earths Will Be a Game Changer

· U.S. Coal Plant Environmental Upgrades to Cost More Than $50 billion

· $10-Billion Market for SCR Systems, Reagents and Catalyst

· Maximizing CFT Profits in the Coal-Fired Power Generation Industry

· SiloBuster Webinar Program for Combust, Flow, and Treat (CFT) Suppliers

· Oil, Gas, Refining Daily Project Tracking and Monthly Analysis

· Factors Shaping the Combust, Flow and Treat (CFT) Market

· Innovation In the Combust, Flow and Treat Industry Is a Product of Wisdom through Interconnection

· Power Market Guidance in Weekly Twenty-Page Alert

· Coal-fired Power Plant Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases Will Exceed Those for Wind, Solar, Nuclear, and Gas Turbine Plants

· B&W Announces Sale of Loibl Material Handling Subsidiary

· Ultrafine Dust Has a Big Impact on the Environment 

· EPA Finalizes Affordable Clean Energy Rule

· EPA Approves Missouri SIP Plan

· GE India Supplies Air Pollution Control for Multiple Countries

· Ammonia for Chinese SCR Systems

· MHPS Receives Contract for Complete Renovation of Flue Gas Desulfurization System At the Detmarovice Power Station in the Czech Republic

· SHI FW Makes a Strong Case for CFB Scrubbers on Indian Power Plants

· Unique Multi Pollution Control Approach to meet BREF

· Dry Scrubbers in Chile

· Ammonia for Chinese SCR Systems

· Donaldson Company Full Year Sales Forecast up 3.5 to 4.5 Percent

· Longking is World’s Largest APC Company

· Dürr Acquisition of Megtec Expands Portfolio in Exhaust Air Purification Technology

· CECO Environmental Announces New $190 Million Credit Agreement

· Babcock & Wilcox Path to Profitability

More information on this service is available at 5AB Air Pollution Management

Dry Scrubber Silobusting at DSUA, SOx-NOx India, PowerGen U.S., PowerGen Europe

Dry scrubbing expertise will be available at four conferences this fall. Two are in September. One is the DSUA conference in Kansas City. Another is SOx-NOx 2019 in India. In November at PowerGen U.S. there will be a half day session using Dry Scrubber silobusting as an example of how to pursue the emerging markets. There also will be a road map identifying dry scrubbers in the exhibit hall.

There will be a Dry Scrubbing guide at PowerGen Europe a week later.

The DSUA conference will be busting the silos in four areas. One is the retained knowledge of the soon to be retired engineers. The conference is a path for the younger engineers into the silo.  Another silo is the new technology. While the semiconductor industry works hard to avoid silos, the power industry is known to be conservative. This is another way of saying that some very large silos have to be busted in order for a new and better technology to be accepted.

A third silo is the experience in other industries. Instrumentation, valves, nozzles and other components with unique and valuable features may first be developed for mining or cement applications. DSUA also provides a forum for users in waste to energy to interface with  users in power, steel and other industries. A fourth silo is the knowledge in other parts of the world. China has the most-dry scrubber installations in the world.

The question is posed as to how the DSUA silo busting can be enhanced. DSUA has a website and links to past papers. So previous attendees have access to them. An analysis has been prepared listing the resources supplied by DSUA and the opportunities for making a larger international contribution to furthering the use of dry scrubbing and DSI. 

http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/Decision_Tree/DSUA_Silobusting.pdf

Part of that effort could be quarterly webinars. Another aspect would be collaboration by DSUA with media and conference organizers. McIlvaine is an organizer of a half-day session at PowerGen in November. The session will use dry scrubbing and DSUA silo busting as an example to show how U.S. suppliers can expand into Asian and other developing markets. This can be followed by discussions on the exhibit floor with Andritz, Beth and other dry scrubber system suppliers. It is interesting that there are more offshore dry scrubber exhibitors than U.S.- based although Andritz is in the U.S. based on an acquisition.

There is a SOx-NOx conference in India at the same time as DSUA. A brief discussion relative to DSUA could also take place. The powering sponsor will be NTPC who is the largest Indian utility. It is installing 4 x 250 MW of DSI and is installing a number of FGD systems. There are a number of international organizations which could have representatives at both conferences. United Conveyor and ENVEA will be exhibitors at SOx-NOx. Past participants include a number of companies who have also participated in DSUA.

The DSUA conference is scheduled for Sept 10-12 whereas SOx-NOx is September 12 and 13^th. Here are thoughts regarding collaboration

· An August webinar to promote the DSUA conference could also promote SOx-NOx from the dry scrubber perspective

· A speech at SOx-NOx could cover DSUA activities and news from DSUA 2019 could be circulated on the 13^th to SOx-NOx attendees

· A joint webinar between DSUA and SOx-NOx participants could take place in October

· The collaboration could be used as an example at the half day tutorial at PowerGen prior to the show

· A tour map of the DSUA related stands at PowerGen would be circulated

· PowerGen Europe is a week later and has exhibitors such as UCC who will also be exhibiting at SOx-NOx in India

· A subsequent article in Power Engineering would cover both DSUA and SOx-NOx

· Additional webinars prior to the 2020 conference could be scheduled

For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com or call him at 847 226 2391

June 2019 Cleanroom Market Updates

Monthly updates are included in N6F World Cleanroom Markets. Here are the headlines in the latest update.

SEMICONDUCTORS 

Flow and Treat Purchases by TSMC and Other Chip Producers

Semiconductor Leaders Strike Agreement on Global Policy Agenda

Global Semiconductor Sales Decrease 14.6 Percent Year-to-Year in April; 12 Percent Decrease in Annual Sales Projected for 2019

TSMC Reports Decrease in Revenues

Semiconductor Market Lurching into Worst-in-a-Decade Downturn in 2019, IHS Market Says

First Quarter 2019 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings Drop 19 Percent Year-Over-Year

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts April 2019 Billings

Intel Recaptures Number One Quarterly Semi Supplier Ranking from Samsung

Sensors/Actuators Reach Record Sales on Slower Growth

PHARMACEUTICAL/BIOLOGICAL

Biodegradable Stents Market to See 28.8 Percent Annual Growth Through 2023

Merck to Acquire Peloton Therapeutics, Bolstering Oncology Pipeline

Lundbeck to Acquire Abide Therapeutics

Bayer Building New Facility at West Coast Campus

WuXi Biologics Building New Manufacturing Center in China

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS

Gartner Says Global Smart Phone Sales Declined 2.7 Percent in First Quarter of 2019

Communications IC Market to Again Surpass Computer IC Market

U.S. – China Trade Disputes Prompt TV Makers to Cut Display Panel Demand IHS Markit Says

Nanotechnology Market to See 12 Percent Annual Growth Through 2023

________________

Weekly Updates to Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining

Here was one entry yesterday in N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects

TechnipFMC Awarded Integrated EPCI Subsea Contract for the BP Thunder Horse Expansion Project

TechnipFMC has been awarded a significant (1) integrated Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (iEPCI™) contract by BP for the Thunder Horse South Expansion 2 Project located in the Gulf of Mexico. TechnipFMC will manufacture, deliver and install subsea equipment, including subsea tree systems, manifolds, flowline, umbilicals and subsea tree jumpers, pipeline end terminations, subsea distribution and topside control equipment. This is the second iEPCI™ awarded to TechnipFMC by BP following Atlantis Phase 3 in the first quarter of 2019. The Thunder Horse field is located in Mississippi Canyon Blocks 776, 777 and 778, in the Boarshead Basin, 200 kilometers south-east of New Orleans. It is one of the largest fields in the Gulf of Mexico and lies at a water depth of 1,830 meters. (1) For TechnipFMC, a “significant” contract is between $75 million and $250 million.

Click here to un-subscribe from this mailing list