Ethylene capacity to reach 270 million tons in 2026

According to one market researcher 140 planned and announced ethylene plants are scheduled to come online, predominantly in Asia and the Middle East, during the forecast period through 2026.

Global ethylene capacity is expected to experience considerable growth between 2017 and 2026, increasing from 180 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2017 to more than 270 mtpa in 2026, led by China and the US.

Within Asia, China will dominate the global ethylene market in the mid-term with both the biggest number of new projects and the largest absolute capacity expansion driven by economic growth. The country is set to add a total capacity of approximately 22.2 mtpa by 2026 with the help of 36 ethylene planned plants in the forecast period. Capital expenditure (capex) for these plants is US$43bn. China is forecast to account for 54% of the Asian capacity addition and 25% of the global capacity addition during the outlook period.

USA is the second largest in terms of ethylene capacity additions with a capacity of around 15.9 mtpa from 17 planned and announced ethylene plants. The country plans to spend US$27.24bn during the forecast period. The Middle East follows in terms of ethylene capacity additions. Within the region, Iran has 17 planned and announced ethylene plants with a total capacity of 10.6 mtpa by 2026. Capex for these plants totals US$20.45bn over the next nine years. For the US and Iran, the low-cost abundant supply of natural gas is the primary reason for the rush in ethylene capacity additions.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co and Exxon Mobil Corp lead among the key companies in terms of global capacity additions, with an estimated capacity addition of 4.4 mtpa (7 plants) and 3.9 mtpa (4 plants), respectively.