SMR Market Could Top $6 Billion by End of Decade

There will be a real market for Small Modular Reactors and all the components. When you include all the projects smaller than 300 MW, you include the very small projects which are already underway.  With the projects in China and the US at the 125 MW scale slated for operation between 2015 and 2020, there is already significant revenue generation.  One of the outcomes of the Japanese nuclear disaster is a shift in interest from large plants to small ones.  Therefore, the revenue stream projections for small plants may be more predictable than for the large ones.

The time line for revenue generation for 100-300 MW projects is split into:

• Preparation

• Manufacturing

• Construction

• Startup

Revenues for consultants and engineers start in the preparation phase and run through startup.  Steel and other raw material revenues would be highest during manufacture and construction. Purchased components should be on site prior to construction. So revenues for pumps and valves would peak a year or two before startup. Some pump and valve revenues are generated when an order is placed and the stream continues through shipment. Additional revenues are generated to assist in start up. There may be an amount withheld until performance guarantees are demonstrated. So this could be well after startup.

Here is the timeline for the B&W Clinch river project and the goal for typical projects once commercialization has been established.

Scheduling and relevance to the revenue streams are shown below:

Argentina’s plan to install a 25-megawatt SMR prototype in 2014 is on schedule. Rosatom Corp, a Russian nuclear company, has said it will sell nearly three SMR equipped barges in 2011.  A demonstration high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plant, with twin reactor modules driving a single 210 MWe steam turbine, is slated for startup in 2015 at Shidaowan in China.  The B&W Clinch River start is slated for 2020.

There are a dozen or more consortia working on developing SMRS. So even  the demonstration plant revenues will be significant.  The B&W prototype is close to start up. So there is  modest revenue now. The revenues will likely increase substantially in following years.

Here is a forecast which is based on start date.

SMR  Project Timeline:

If the initial projects prove successful and demonstrate the cost advantages of SMR, then the revenue streams could rise rapidly starting in 2017 when manufacture of vessels and components slated for 2020 startup will peak.

Plate and structural steel could be 8% of the total cost.  The peak revenues would occur during the manufacture phase.  So the suppliers would be receiving $ 96 million in revenues in 2013 rising  to $ 480 million in 2020.  In the same time frame suppliers of pumps and valves would enjoy revenues of $ 72 million in 2013 rising to $ 360 million in 2020.