Power Air Quality Insights No

Power Air Quality Insights
No. 124 September 12, 2013

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· U.S. Air Pollution Control Sales Will Grow 7 Percent to $8.9 Billion In 2017

· Major Variables Make Precise Forecasting Of Future Energy Supply Mix Impossible

· “Air Pollution Control for Gas” is the “Hot Topic Hour” on September 12^th

U.S. Air Pollution Control Sales Will Grow 7 Percent to $8.9 Billion In 2017

Sales of the equipment and consumables to control air pollution in the U.S. will rise at seven percent per year over the next four years to reach just under $9 billion in 2017. This is the latest forecast in Air Pollution Management published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)

Industry	2017
Total	8,975
Asphalt	92
Bioclean	156
Cement	6
Chemical	317
Commercial	574
Electronics	148
Food	72
Gas Turbines	204
Incinerators	148
Industrial Boilers	61
Metals	356
Mining	71
Other Industries	891
Pharmaceutical	42
Power	4,229
Pulp & Paper	129
Refining	85
Residential	783
Steel	148
Stone	90
Surface Coating	108
Waste Incinerators	45
Wastewater	220

The power industry will be the leading purchaser. However, revenues in 2017 will only be half the peak achieved in 2005. The low cost of natural gas will boost revenues for gas turbine air pollution control as well as sales in the chemical industry where the lower feedstock costs are spurring capital investment.

Sales for industrial boiler applications will peak in 2016 when the impact of the air toxic regulations is highest. The waste-to-energy market will not achieve its potential as the U.S. still considers landfill as preferable. This is in contrast to the rest of the world where it is difficult to permit a landfill but not difficult to permit a waste-to-energy plant.

Major Variables Make Precise Forecasting Of Future Energy Supply Mix Impossible

More money will be spent on new coal-fired power plants in the next decade than on all other energy generation technologies combined. But the mix in the 2023-2033 timeframe is less predictable.

It takes years to plan and then construct a new coal-fired power plant, so near-term predictions for new coal capacity can be made with confidence. Nuclear power plants take even longer. Wind and solar construction cycles are much shorter.

Renewable energy is turning out to be more expensive than proponents had hoped. As a result, new construction relies on subsidies rather than competitive pricing. So future use depends on progress in cost reduction or continuation of subsidies. Both are fraught with uncertainty.

Gas-fired power recently has been expensive in Europe where some power plants are being temporarily shuttered. Meanwhile gas-fired power is relatively inexpensive in the U.S. The price disparity will disappear if large scale LNG and gas-to-liquids plants are built in the U.S. The ability to export gas will raise the price to world levels.

The political turmoil in the Middle East is another major variable. The shale gas production in the U.S. is sufficient to blunt some of the impact, but since gas and oil prices ultimately rise and fall together, this turmoil is a significant potential factor in future energy production.

The attitude toward global warming is another factor. It has been strong enough in the U.S. to ensure that few if any new coal-fired power plants will be built. The attitude in China is to spend lots of money to clean up all the direct air emissions from burning coal. The argument can be made that the potential harm from SO₂, NO_x, mercury and fine particulate is significantly greater than from the emission of CO₂. So the harm reduction is substantial if the pollutants are removed.

McIlvaine has created a common metric to measure all harm and good. A ton of mercury is as harmful as ten million tons of CO₂. So a campaign to eliminate the 100 tons/yr of mercury from Chinese coal-fired power plants would be the equivalent of a one billion ton/yr reduction in CO₂ emissions.

An analysis of the future of the various energy generation technologies is found in:

AMEC, the international engineering and project management company, has been awarded a multi-million dollar engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract by Sempra U.S. Gas & Power to design and construct its Copper Mountain Solar 3 project near Las Vegas, NV.

Copper Mountain Solar 3 is the third phase of Sempra U.S. Gas & Power’s landmark Copper Mountain Solar complex, currently one of the largest photovoltaic (PV) solar plants in the U.S. Situated on about 1,400 acres of land, Copper Mountain Solar 3 will tap into the intense desert sun in Boulder City, NV to produce clean energy.

Construction on the 250-megawatt (MW) solar project has already begun and will create over 300 jobs and 12 permanent operations jobs. Slated for completion in 2015, Copper Mountain Solar 3 will be capable of generating enough electricity to power approximately 80,000 homes.

Dominion Virginia Power, a subsidiary of Dominion, bid $1.6 million to win the lease for 112,800 acres of federal land off the coast of Virginia to develop an offshore wind turbine farm capable of generating up to 2,000 megawatts of electricity, enough for 700,000 homes.

The federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) conducted the auction. Eight companies, including Dominion, were approved to bid, but only two firms participated. The auction lasted six rounds.

BOEM has several milestones that Dominion must meet to keep the lease with the final milestone being the submittal of a Construction and Operations Plan within five years of signing the lease. Once BOEM has the plan, it has an undetermined amount of time to perform an environmental analysis and approve the plan. Dominion expects the first turbine to be installed in about 10 years pending project approval by state regulators.

Dominion is involved in other offshore wind research projects. Dominion and its team was one of seven projects selected to receive $4 million each in federal matching funds to undertake initial engineering, design, and permitting for a demonstration facility of two six-megawatt turbines with a goal of finding innovative ways to lower costs of offshore wind. The Department of Energy will select up to three of the projects for follow-on phases to move forward with the final design, permitting, and ultimate construction of these demonstration projects. The projects must be in operation by the end of 2017.

EDF Renewable Energy announced it has closed on the Membership Interest Purchase Agreement to acquire the Heartland Biogas Project with Heartland Renewable Energy, LLC. The 20 megawatt-equivalent anaerobic digester and renewable natural gas (RNG) facility has commenced construction activities with biogas deliveries to begin by the end of first quarter 2014.

The project, located in Weld County near LaSalle, CO, will use a complete mix anaerobic digester system to produce up to 4,700 MMBtu of biogas daily making it one of the largest anaerobic digester facilities in the United States.

The anaerobic digestion system converts organic feedstock and dairy cow manure into raw biogas. The raw biogas is then processed into pipeline quality RNG. After being conditioned to pipeline grade, the RNG will be supplied to Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) through a 20-year Gas Purchase Agreement (GPA).

SaskPower Signs Contribution Agreement with DEEP to Participate in a $2 Million Geothermal Power Front End Engineering and Design Study

DEEP Earth Energy Production Corp. (DEEP) announced that the Contribution Agreement with SaskPower to fund a $2 Million Front End Engineering Design (FEED) Study on the economic and technical viability of geothermal as a resource for clean electricity generation in southeastern Saskatchewan on a 50/50 basis with Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) was signed on July 30, 2013. This news follows a previous announcement made by DEEP on May 3, 2013, that stated that SaskPower was considering this match funding opportunity.

The total budget for the FEED study is approximately $2 million and will include well data analysis, reservoir analysis and modeling, preliminary subsurface and surface design, energy yield analysis, environmental planning, land use planning and an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) bid package. The expected completion date is December 2013. GeothermEx, a Schlumberger Company, has been contracted as geothermal project consultants. Schlumberger Carbon Services provided the reservoir modeling and engineering for the Aquistore wells at the Boundary Dam Power Plant for the Petroleum and Technology Research Council (PTRC) and, in continuation of their work, have been engaged to perform reservoir analysis.

With a positive outcome of the FEED study, it is DEEP’s intention to pursue a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with SaskPower, specific to the geothermal resources in Southeast Saskatchewan. It is DEEP’s hope that if the FEED study proves successful, this would create the opportunity to develop multiple geothermal plants over the next decade. DEEP has commenced with arranging the required financing in addition to submitting a funding proposal to NRCan in September for full project build-out.

New Energy Announces Commercial & Military Aircraft Applications for its See-through Coatings Able to Generate Electricity

New Energy Technologies, Inc., developer of the world’s first-of-its-kind, see-through technology capable of generating electricity on glass and flexible plastics, announced that the company has expanded the use of its SolarWindow™ coatings to include two new product lines. These products are the result of several new inventions — the subject of seven new patent filings — for commercial and military aircraft, and the safety and security of military pilots.

“These product developments allow us strategic entry into flight function and safety, and aircraft power while maintaining focus on the ongoing development of SolarWindow™,” stated Mr. John A. Conklin, President and CEO of New Energy Technologies, Inc. “These are the kinds of products which position the company as a world-class innovator, using our see-through electricity-generating coatings in high-value applications.”

Aircraft windows and fuselage surfaces, and related components; and pilot flight suits, helmets, and visors are among target surfaces included in New Energy’s latest inventions to make use of the company’s electricity-generating SolarWindow™ coatings. The production of electricity on such surfaces and materials is possible when researchers lightly tint their surfaces with New Energy’s flexible organic, electricity-generating coatings. The result is aesthetically pleasing see-through surfaces, which can have uniquely tailored properties, that generate electricity.

Researchers envision applying SolarWindow™ coatings to pilot safety equipment, thus providing much-needed ultra-lightweight emergency power to downed pilots. Researchers further anticipate that supplementary power production from SolarWindow™ coatings could reduce the size and weight of ancillary power systems aboard today’s aircraft, potentially improving fuel consumption while increasing usable aircraft space.

§ Sierra Club protesting Cost Overruns at Mississippi Power David M. Ratcliffe (Liberty) IGCC Power Project

§ Iowa starting Development of SIP for Muscatine SO₂ Non-attainment Area

§ New Mexico Environmental Improvement Board approves Revised Regional Haze Plan for San Juan

“Air Pollution Control for Gas Turbines” is the “Hot Topic Hour” on September 19, 2013

With the “Franken MACT” bearing down on the electric power industry, many utilities are looking to gas turbines to replace the power from older coal- or oil-fired units they will shut down. The mandates for renewable energy are also acting to encourage the construction of new gas turbine (GT) power units since GTs are able to ramp up and down quickly to meet the highly variable power output from the most common renewable sources, wind and solar.

Air pollution emissions from gas turbines are almost exclusively from combustion with a small potential for emissions from the transportation and storage of the fuel. Combustion emissions from a gas turbine include NO_x, SO_x, carbon monoxide (CO), unburned hydrocarbons, and particulate matter. Generally, NO_x and CO are the most significant emissions along with VOCs in ozone nonattainment areas. The coming GHG regulations may also have a significant impact on the operation of gas turbines.

Although APC systems have been in operation on GTs for many years and are proven to produce low emission rates (as low as 0.8 ppm NO_xwith undetectable levels of CO), there are many problems and issues unique to control of air pollution from GTs. These are far different than those faced by coal- or oil-fueled steam plants. For example, GTs that are operated as peaking units have rapid ramp rates that result in severe temperature and flow velocity changes. The SCR catalyst must be carefully selected based on the operating temperature, then the balance between the cost of catalysts for different operating temperatures and the cost of cooling or dilution systems must be evaluated. If a CO catalyst is included in the design, it may have an influence on SCR catalyst performance. If the GT is also operated on oil when gas prices are high then the sulfur content of the oil must be considered (in regard to SO₂ to SO₃ conversion and the resulting ammonium bisulfate after the SCR), as well as vanadium content. Gas turbine exhaust is very turbulent and flow modification devices may be required to insure good mixing of ammonia with the exhaust gas and uniform flow across the catalyst. Backpressure, however, leads to a reduction in power and temperature changes in the turbine.

The following speakers will address the current issues related to GT APC such as current and coming air pollution regulations, impact of GHG regulations and the tradeoff between efficiency and output. They will also provide details on the latest technology being developed or tested, describe the performance of systems that have been proven in the field and discuss the issues related to the design, operation and maintenance of GT APC.

Bill Gretta, VP for the Power Plant Solutions Division, Eneractive Solutions, Inc.

Bob McGinty, Senior Manager Business Development, SCR NO_x Control Systems at Mitsubishi Power Systems Americas, Inc

Thomas "Nathan" White, Director Business Development, SCR/DeNO_xCatalyst & Technology, Haldor Topsoe

On Thursday at 10 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking System. The cost is $125.00 for non-subscribers. Market Intelligence webinars are free to McIlvaine market report subscribers and are $400.00 for non-subscribers.

DATE	Non-Subscribers Cost	SUBJECT	Webinar Type
September 19, 2013	$125.00	Air Pollution Control for Gas Turbines	Power
September 26, 2013	$125.00	Multi-pollutant Control Technology	Power
October 3, 2013	$125.00	Update on Coal Ash and CCP Issues and Standards	Power
October 17, 2013	$125.00	Air Pollution Control in China	Power
October 31, 2013	$125.00	Chinese FGD/SCR Program and Impact on the World	Power
November 21, 2013	$125.00	Wet vs. Dry ESP	Power
December 5, 2013	$125.00	Update on Gasification Projects and Technology	Power
December 12, 2013	$125.00	Selecting FGD Scrubber Components	Power
December 19, 2013	$125.00	Application of U.S. Mercury Control Technology in Other Countries	Power