Power Air Quality Insights No

· 2000 Industrial Boilers Will Spend Between $4 and $12 Billion to Meet the New Industrial Boiler MACT Rule

· Gate, Globe and Ball Valves will be the Most Popular in the $61 Billion Industrial Valve Market in 2015

· “Industrial Boiler MACT Impact and Control Options – Part 2” is the

In the next few months, operators of industrial boilers will have to decide whether to gamble on low gas prices for the next two decades or add air pollution control equipment to their existing systems. There are more than 10,000 boilers listed in the McIlvaine Industrial Air Emitters database and project tracking system. Less than 2000 will fall under the criteria for action set up by the new Industrial Boiler MACT rule.

Of these 2000 units, only 500 units will have to make major capital expenditures. These plants will have to decide whether to invest the funds to meet the new regulations or switch to natural gas or even retire the units and buy electricity. The Industrial Air Emitters program is tracking these decisions as they happen

A survey conducted by URS and funded by the Council of Industrial Boiler owners found that to meet the new limits coal-fired boilers would have to spend $5.6 billon. Liquid-fired units would have to spend $5.2 billion and biomass and other units would spend $1.2 billion.

At present, the cost of natural gas is low, so it would seem attractive for these owners to tear out the old boilers and replace them with new gas turbines. The capital cost of the replacement turbines compares favorably with the capital cost of the upgrades to the existing plants. The question is what will be the price of natural gas over the lifetime of the boilers?

A number of plants do not presently have access to sufficient gas. These owners are looking at an add-on cost of up to $3/MM Btu to offset the investment by the gas supplier in new transmission lines. So even at $2/MM Btu gas when the transmission add-on is included, the economic advantage disappears.

For the plants with gas access, now the question is, what will be the availability and price in the future? Europe is reducing its reliance on gas and moving back to coal. This is a scenario similar to the one in the U.S. in 2000 when gas prices soared. Can it happen again here?

Gas has a value much higher than coal. It can be converted to liquids and sold as gasoline and it can be compressed to LNG and transported around the world. It can be used for home and commercial heating without large capital investments in pollution control equipment. Fifteen billion dollars has already been allocated for gas-to-liquids plants in the U.S. Equally large sums are being invested to convert LNG regasification to liquefaction facilities. In the meantime, the supply of conventional natural gas is rapidly dwindling. This means unconventional, including shale gas, will have to fill the void and provide for the new demands. At some point it is inevitable that the price of gas will reflect its higher value and the world prices.

Industrial boiler owners will have to answer the tough question as to when that will occur. On one hand, the shale gas supply could be so large as to ensure longer term low gas cost. On the other hand, the depletion rates and other realities could make the gas supply only able to keep up with traditional markets and the new demand in those markets.

Unfortunately the boiler owners do not have the luxury to wait. Compliance is required by 2015. So decisions have to be made in the next few months. McIlvaine is tracking these decisions plus those dealing with the Cement MACT in Industrial Air Emitters.

The market for industrial valves will be just under $61 billion/yr by 2015. Gate, globe and ball valve revenues will each exceed $12 billion. The leading purchaser will be Asia. These are the most recent conclusions in the McIlvaine report: Industrial Valves World Markets published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)

By 2015, Asia will be buying almost twice as many industrial valves as Europe. The infrastructure and heavy industry growth in the region is causing double digit increases in annual purchases.

Globe valves will be the leader by valve type. Ball valves will be second on the leader list.

McIlvaine has substantially changed the valve categories to focus on the physical valve type rather than use. Previously, control valves were treated as a separate category regardless of their type. The revised categories most closely follow the segmentation used by the valve suppliers. The scope also reflects the perspective of the valve supplier rather than some precise and less meaningful segmentation.

The valve revenues are defined as those sales reported in the valve segment by the suppliers. So, if actuators are sold by the valve supplier, they are included. Where actuators are sold directly by an actuator manufacturer to the end user, they are not included.

With this definition the valve total revenues equal the reported revenues of all the valve suppliers. McIlvaine also estimates sales for hundreds of valve manufacturers. These validate the total revenue estimates which are also determined by models in each industry.

Ways to improve solar technology are being studied by many different institutions around the world. McIlvaine reports on these activities in Renewable Energy Projects and Update.

Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have produced solar cells using nanotechnology techniques at an efficiency of 18.2 percent that is competitive. The breakthrough should be a major step toward helping lower the cost of solar energy.

NREL tailored a nanostructured surface while ensuring that the light-generated electricity can still be collected efficiently from the solar cell. The researchers made nano-islands of silver on a silicon wafer and immersed it briefly in liquids to make billions of nano-sized holes in each square-inch of the silicon wafer surface. The holes and silicon walls are smaller than the light wavelengths hitting them, so the light does not recognize any sudden change in density at the surface and, thus, do not reflect back into the atmosphere as wasted energy. The researchers controlled the nanoshapes and the chemical composition of the surface to reach record solar cell efficiencies for this ‘black silicon’ material.

The paper, “An 18.2%-Efficient Black-Silicon Solar Cell Achieved through Control of Carrier Recombination in Nanostructures” by NREL’s Jihun Oh, Hao-Chih Yuan, and Howard Branz, currently appears on Nature Nanotechnology’s website.

Typically, solar cell manufacturers must add an extra anti-reflection layer, or two, to their cells, which boosts costs significantly.

ATK's MegaFlex^™ solar array was recently selected by NASA's Space Technology Program under a Game Changing Technology competition for development of the promising lightweight and compact solar array structure. ATK received a $6.4 million contract for the MegaFlex^™ development.

MegaFlex^™, under development by ATK's Space Components Division in Goleta, CA, is designed specifically to meet the anticipated power demands of 350kW and higher, with very low mass and small stowed volume for future space exploration missions using solar electric propulsion.

NASA's 18-month Phase 1 technology development program will increase the solar array size to twice that of the MPCV UltraFlex^™ (approximately 40 feet in diameter) and will raise the technical readiness level of the MegaFlex^™ design through hardware development and verification testing. ATK plans to further develop a flight-ready version of MegaFlex^™ in preparation for a future space flight demonstration during the follow-on Phase 2 Technology Development contract.

ATK's MegaFlex^™ solar array is based on its spaceflight-proven UltraFlex^™ solar array family of platforms that powered NASA's Mars Phoenix Lander in 2008, is in series production of 10 wings for Orbital's Commercial Resupply Services spacecraft, and is baselined on NASA's recently announced Insight Discovery Mission to Mars awarded to Lockheed Martin. The exceptional performance of smaller (6-foot diameter) solar arrays used to power the Phoenix Lander contributed to the Phoenix mission being extended three times. ATK's high-strength, lightweight and compact 15kW UltraFlex^™ solar arrays—measuring nearly 20 feet in diameter—were also selected for deployment on NASA's manned Orion Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). The UltraFlex^™ technology's flight-proven reliability, fully-qualified low-mass performance and straightforward scalability to ~350kW class power levels established a credible basis from which to further develop MegaFlex^™ to high technical readiness.

Scientists at Natcore Technology Inc. have created the world's first black silicon solar cell using processes amenable to low-cost mass production.

After recently treating a wafer to make it the "blackest" silicon solar cell surface ever recorded, Natcore's technicians used their scalable liquid phase deposition (LPD) process to create the black silicon solar cell, from wafer to finished cell, in their R&D Center in Rochester, NY.

In the past, Natcore had directed other labs, e.g. Arizona State University, the Photovoltaic R&D Center at the University of Toledo, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), to perform various production steps or to conduct tests for which Natcore was not equipped.

But in July, Natcore completed a $2.5 million financing to enable the company to take its black silicon technology to commercialization. A portion of the proceeds was invested in the brainpower and lab equipment needed to execute its work quickly and in-house. "This black silicon solar cell, made entirely in our lab, is the first fruit of that investment," says Chuck Provini, Natcore President and CEO.

While Natcore's "Absolute Black" silicon wafers have near-zero reflectivity, meaning that virtually 100% of the light that reaches them is available for conversion to electricity, these wafers are merely components of a solar cell; they do not generate electricity until fashioned into solar cells.

The next stop for Natcore's new solar cell is NREL, with which Natcore has a Cooperative Research & Development Agreement (CRADA). NREL recently produced solar cells with an efficiency of 18.2 percent using processes that are less suited to mass production. Under the terms of the CRADA, NREL and Natcore will work together using Natcore's low-cost passivation technology to achieve or exceed that efficiency with Natcore's black silicon solar cells.

This goal would be accomplished by combining Natcore's patented LPD technology with NREL's technologies for creating a black silicon antireflective layer integrated into high-efficiency solar cells. The feasibility of the combined technologies working together has already been demonstrated in a preliminary Natcore/NREL effort that produced a small-area, lab-scale black silicon solar cell with 16.5 percent efficiency.

Honeywell announced that it has introduced a new black laminate film designed to help make black solar panels cooler and more efficient.

All-black solar panels are increasingly being used on homes because they blend with rooftops more easily. PowerShield^® Cool Black is a backsheet that helps reduce solar panel operating temperature by using an innovative and proprietary technology that reflects solar radiation. When panels operate at lower temperatures, their electrical components are able to operate more effectively and generate more power.

“Heat reduction is a key factor in improving solar panel efficiency, and black panels are especially susceptible to increased temperatures,” said Jerry Buchanan, global business manager for Honeywell’s photovoltaic (PV) backing systems business. “Honeywell’s innovative new product, PowerShield Cool Black, can help keep black panels cool while making them more efficient, durable and able to blend in with their surroundings.”

Independent industry and university laboratory tests have shown that, during periods of peak power demand, solar panels using PowerShield Cool Black are as much as 7°C (12.6°F) cooler, which can increase their power output by 2 to 3 percent. In turn, this increased power output can reduce a panel’s cost-per-watt generated by 2 to 3 percent.

PowerShield Cool Black’s efficiency benefits can help panel manufacturers achieve industry standards for power output at a lower cost. Panels using the backsheet can meet a building-integrated PV (BIPV) or building-applied PV (BAPV) module output rating with lower-cost cells, or reach a higher module output rating using existing cells.

PowerShield Cool Black includes Honeywell’s proprietary adhesive, which helps make panels more durable and able to withstand harsh environments. The backsheet has been shown to withstand more than 3,000 hours of exposure at an 85°C (185°F) temperature and 85 percent relative humidity while maintaining its structural integrity.

“Industrial Boiler MACT Impact and Control Options” – Part 2” is the “Hot Topic Hour” on Thursday, April 4, 2013 at 10 a.m. (DST)

On December 21, 2012, the EPA finally issued its long delayed “final” rules for reducing toxic air pollution, including mercury, HCl and particulates from industrial boilers, process heaters and certain incinerators. The revised regulations target the largest polluters, approximately 2,300 industrial boilers (especially the 600+ coal-fired industrial boilers) and 106 incinerators in the U.S. The revised rule also gives operators more time to comply – three years and four in some cases for both existing and new sources.

After years of delays, the finalized Boiler MACT standard may end the uncertainty and allow boiler operators to move forward. However, some industry groups have already signaled that they will contest this rule in court. A possible reason is that industry groups estimate the capital cost of compliance at almost three times the $5.1 billion estimated by the EPA.

The following speakers will help us understand the “final” Boiler MACT rule, the legal situation and the potential for additional delays due to litigation. They will also discuss how boiler operators might meet the challenges of the MACT, identify the optimal control strategy for each boiler configuration and the required reduction targets, discuss potential control technologies available for operators to achieve compliance and the advantages and disadvantages of the various control technologies, as well as criteria for selecting specific technologies – existing facility configuration, existing control equipment installed, fuel type and others.

Steve Jaasund, Manager Geoenergy Division at A. H. Lundberg Associates, will present “Wet ESPs for Boiler MACT Compliance”. The boiler MACT rule requires many solid fuel industrial boilers to reduce particulate emissions. In numerous cases these boilers employ low to medium energy wet scrubbers that will not meet the MACT standards without an increase in pressure drop. In these situations the addition of a downstream wet ESP will be an attractive option for complying with the new rules. This presentation will explore the advantages of wet ESP technology in this role.

James "Buzz" Reynolds, Vice-president Wet Electrostatic Precipitators, Siemens Energy, Inc., Environmental Systems & Services, will present "Industrial Boiler MACT HCl/PM Control with Wet Scrubbing/Wet ESP Control Technology." Industrial plants needing to comply with the new EPA Major Source NESHAP standards with a wastewater treatment facility should consider using wet scrubbing/wet ESP control technology in lieu of sorbent injection/fabric filter control technology as a way to meet the MACT standards plus future PM_2.5 regulations. A combined wet scrubber/wet ESP system offers control of acid gases and particulate matter in a relatively compact footprint with low maintenance and pressure drop vs. control with sorbent injection/fabric filter.

David W. South, President Technology & Market Solutions, LLC, will discuss the CHP option for achieving compliance with the Industrial Boiler MACT. Boilers MACT compliance can be accomplished through retrofit of air pollution control (APC) equipment and fuel switching. Compliance can also be achieved by installing a combined heat and power (CHP) or cogeneration system. Besides being more efficient, CHP systems can also generate revenue by the resale of electricity to the grid or displacement of purchased electricity by the industrial source. In either case, grid benefits might arise that will produce additional revenue. This presentation will outline these benefits and how off-balance sheet financing is available to facilitate CHP installation and boiler MACT compliance.

On Thursday at 10 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System. The cost is $125.00 for non-subscribers. Market Intelligence webinars are free to McIlvaine market report subscribers and are $400.00 for non-subscribers.

	2013
Date	Subject
March 28	Mercury Measurement and Control – Part 1	Power
April 4	Industrial Boiler MACT Impact and Control Options – Part 2	Power
April 11	Mercury Measurement and Control – Part 2	Power
April 18	Mercury Measurement and Control – Part 3	Power
April 25	Control Technologies for Fine Particulate Matter	Power
May 2	Flyash Pond and Wastewater Treatment Issues	Power
May 9	Clean Coal Technologies	Power
May 16	Power Plant Automation and Control	Power
May 23	Cooling Towers	Power
May 30	Air Pollution Control Markets (geographic trends, regulatory developments, competition, technology developments)	Market Intelligence
June 6	Report from Power-Gen Europe (update on regulations, speaker and exhibitor highlights)	Power
June 13	Monitoring and Optimizing Fuel Feed, Metering and Combustion in Boilers	Power
June 20	Dry Sorbent Injection and Material Handling for APC	Power
June 27	Power Generation Forecast for Nuclear, Fossil and Renewables	Market Intelligence
July 11	New Developments in Power Plant Air Pollution Control	Power
July 18	Measurement and Control of HCl	Power
July 25	GHG Compliance Strategies, Reduction Technologies and Measurement	Power
August 1	Update on Coal Ash and CCP Issues and Standards	Power
August 8	Improving Power Plant Efficiency and Power Generation	Power
August 15	Control and Treatment Technology for FGD Wastewater	Power
August 22	Status of Carbon Capture and Storage Programs and Technology	Power
August 29	Pumps for Power Plant Cooling Water and Water Treatment Applications	Power
Sept. 5	Fabric Selection for Particulate Control	Power
Sept. 19	Air Pollution Control for Gas Turbines	Power
Sept. 26	Multi-Pollutant Control Technology	Power


Continent			2015
Africa			3,308
America			16,467
Asia			27,213
Europe			14,001
Total			60,989

Valve Type	Percent
Gate	20.0%
Globe	22.0%
Ball	21.0%
Butterfly	15.0%
Plug	10.0%
Check	3.0%
Safety Relief	4.0%
Other	5.0%
Total	100.0%