·        Hot Topic Hour,  July 14, 2011 “Panel Discussion on Power Plant Fans”

·        Here are the Headlines for the July 1, 2011 – Utility E Alert

·        Coal-fired Projects for 2014 Start-up Represent Purchases of $220 Billion

·        SMR Market Could Top $153 Billion by 2030

Hot Topic Hour, July 14, 2011 “Panel Discussion on Power Plant Fans”

We are changing the format of the Hot Topic Hours in order to focus more on the technical issues of concern to the participants.  Rather than having each participant prepare their own 20 minute presentation as was done in previous Hot Topic Hours, we are assembling a panel of three to five experts on the subject matter to address specific questions.  Each person on the panel will be asked to comment on a series of four to six questions prepared by The McIlvaine Company after consulting with the panelists, and from those you may submit.

Here are questions about fans and blowers for use in power plants and a list of the panelists for the “Hot Topic Hour” on July 14, 2011 at 10 a.m. CDT (Chicago time). 

1.      I am adding an SCR to my plant. Should I upgrade my existing fans, add a booster fan or install a new fan? How can I decide?

2.      Will the new emission control retrofits require strengthening of ductwork and boiler structures to meet NFPA 85 guidelines? How costly will this be?

3.      What are the suggested maintenance operations and frequency to maintain fan efficiency and lengthen the life?

4.      Which is the best type of fan for each application in a power plant (centrifugal, variable pitch or axial) and why?

5.      My flue gas has a high particulate load. What is the best way to improve the life in a highly abrasive environment?

6.      How can I decide whether a fixed speed fan with dampers or a fan with a variable speed motor for fan control is best for my application?

7.      How can I optimize the performance of my fans to improve efficiency?

8.      What speed should I specify? Why?

9.      Do I need to specify an overspeed test for the fan rotor?

10.  What balance quality grade should I specify?

11.  What source would you recommend for learning about basic fan performance parameters and definitions?

12.  What happens if I throttle my fan too much with the inlet control dampers?

13.  What factory testing and analyses should be specified?

Panelists:

Jim Greenzweig, Director, Market Development and Application Engineering at Flaktwoods Americas/Flaktwoods Fan Group.

Dan Banyay, Director of Energy Sales & Product Development at Robinson

Fans, Inc.

Allen Ray, Director, Air & Gas Handling at Process Barron

John Magill, Vice-President of Engineering at Howden North America Inc.

To register for the "Hot Topic Hour" on Thursday, July 14, 2011 at 10 a.m. CDT (Chicago time), click on: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/hot_topic_hour_registration.htm.

If you have any questions or concerns that you would like addressed by the panel, please send an e-mail to Jim Downey at jdowney@mcilvainecompany.com.

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Here are the Headlines for the July 1, 2011 – Utility E Alert

UTILITY E-ALERT

#1031 – July 1, 2011

Table of Contents

FUTURE HOT TOPICS

• Do you have Questions about Fans and Blowers for use in Power Plants?

COAL – US 

• EPA to issue Final MACT Standards for Boilers and Certain Waste Incinerators in April 2012
• Dominion to convert Altavista, Hopewell, and Southampton to Biomass
• 600 MW Wolverine Coal-fired Power Plant in Michigan Construction Permit Approved
• Mt. Tom (MA) to Continuously Monitor Particulate

COAL – WORLD

• L&T plan to set up Two 2,000 MW Thermal Power Units in Orissa, India
• DEWA doubles planned Coal-fired Power Plant Capacity to 3 GW
• Serbian EPS, Italian Edison to build 750 Coal-fired Project in Serbia
• Malaysia’s Sarawak State aims to build 6,200 MW (mostly hydroelectric) by 2020
• STRABAG Polska to add SCR to Laziska 9-12
• Maxim Power receives Approval for 500 MW Milner Expansion in Alberta, Canada
• NTPC still waiting for Environmental Clearance for 1320 MW Bilhaur Power Project in Uttar Pradesh, India
• Kaniha Power Plant in Orissa, India ordered to Partially Shut because of Ash Storage Concerns

GAS / OIL – US

• Calpine, GE secure financing for 619 MW Gas-fired Power Plant in California
• Sierra Club tries to block 600 MW Avenal (CA) Power Plant
• Consumer Group appeals 624 MW Oakley Power Plant Approval
• Highwood Phase 2 rides on Co-op’s Debt-Limit Vote
• Moxie Energy proposes to build two 800 MW Combined Cycle Power Plants in Pennsylvania
• Shaw to build 550 MW Entergy Ninemile Point Combined Cycle Plant

GAS / OIL – WORLD

• Marubeni receives LOI for Two Power Projects from EGAT in Thailand
• Acarsoy Enerji to use GE Technology at 60 MW Advanced Power Plant in Denizli, Turkey
• KAPCO to upgrade Four Gas Turbines in Pakistan
• Wärtsila to supply Equipment for Saudi Arabian 52 MW Hail Cement Power Plant
• Filinvest to build 200 MW Power Plant at Phividec Industrial Estate, Philippines
• Pöyry is Owner’s Engineer for 2650 MW Ras Az Zour Power and Desalination Project in Saudi Arabia

CO₂

• California Delays Cap and Trade Program for One Year
• China Energy and Seamwell to Build $1.5 Billion “Clean Coal” Plant 

NUCLEAR

• France to invest €1 billion ($1.4 billion), in Nuclear Power
• Canada Government to sell AECL to SNC-Lavalin

BUSINESS

• Robinson Power to build 150 MW Gas-fired Power Plant at Champion Waste Coal Site, talking about 150 MW Coal-fired Power Plant, too
• Correction to Alert 1029 Article “Torishima Pumps selected for Indian and US Power Projects”
• 135 MW Calaca Power Plant in Philippines

HOT TOPIC HOUR

• June 30 Hot Topic was Fuel Impacts on SCR Catalysts (including Biomass)

• Upcoming Hot Topic Hours

For more information on the Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System, click on: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#42ei.

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                                                                                                            JULY 2011  

Coal-fired Projects for 2014 Start-up Represent Purchases of $220 Billion

The combination of retrofits to existing power plants and start-up of new coal-fired power plants in 2014 represents a total investment of $220 billion. This is a total of the projects tracked in the Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System and Chinese Utility Plans. These are two online services of the McIlvaine Company (www.mcilvainecompany.com).

At the end of 2013, the world will have coal-fired capacity of 2.21 million MW.  At the end of 2014 there will be an increase of 60,000 MW to a new total of 2.27 million MW.  There are 150 projects with an average size of 400 MW which are now in the final purchasing stage for all the components.  Each of these projects represents a total investment of $1.2 billion. So the total is $180 billion in purchases.

2014 Start-up Investment ($ Billions)

2014 will be a record year for new NO_x control installations with 300 projects totaling over 110,000 MW.  Retrofit projects represent 50 percent of the total and would add $7.5 billion to the total potential for 2014 (the other 50 percent are included in the new coal-fired boiler numbers).

There will be 33,000 MW of FGD retrofits but a total of 95,000 MW of FGD projects starting in 2014 when the new power plants are included.  This will add another $7 billion to the total purchases.

There are a number of projects to replace precipitators and old FGD systems slated for 2014.  This will add another $10 billion to the total.  This includes some fabric filters to meet new particulate limits.

There are various initiatives for 2014 to upgrade wastewater treatment systems and add cooling towers to replace once through cooling systems.   This will add another $15 billion to hardware purchases for 2014.

The selection of components for all these systems is taking place now.

For more information on:  Utility Environmental Upgrade Tracking System, click on: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html#42ei and Chinese Utility Plans, click on:  http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/energy.html.

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SMR Market Could Top $153 Billion by 2030

There will be a real market for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors (SMR) and all the components. With projects in China and the U.S. at the 125 MW scale slated for operation between 2015 and 2020, there is already significant revenue generation.  One of the outcomes of the Japanese nuclear disaster is a shift in interest from large nuclear power plants to small ones.  Therefore, the revenue stream projections for small nuclear power plants may be more predictable than for the large ones.

The timeline for revenue generation for 100-300 MW projects is split into:

·        Preparation,

·        manufacturing ,

·        construction, and

·        startup.

Revenues for consultants and engineers start in the preparation phase and run through startup.  Steel and other raw material revenues would be highest during manufacture and construction. Purchased components should be on site prior to construction. So revenues for pumps and valves would peak a year or two before startup. Some pump and valve revenues are generated when an order is placed and the stream continues through shipment. Additional revenues are generated to assist in startup. There may be an amount withheld until performance guarantees are demonstrated, so this could be well after startup.

Here is the timeline for the B&W Clinch River project and the goal for typical projects once commercialization has been established.

Scheduling and relevance to the revenue streams are shown below:

Argentina’s plan to install a 25-megawatt SMR prototype in 2014 is on schedule. Rosatom Corp, a Russian nuclear company, has said it will sell nearly three SMR equipped barges in 2011. A demonstration high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plant, with twin reactor modules driving a single 210 MWe steam turbine, is slated for startup in 2015 at Shidaowan in China. The B&W Clinch River start is slated for 2020.

There are a dozen or more consortia working on developing SMRs, so even the demonstration plant revenues will be significant.  The B&W prototype is close to startup, so there is modest revenue now. The revenues will likely increase substantially in following years.

Here is a forecast which is based on start date:

SMR Project Timeline

If the initial projects prove successful and demonstrate the cost advantages of SMR, then the revenue streams could rise rapidly starting in 2017 when manufacture of vessels and components slated for 2020 startup will peak.

Plate and structural steel could be eight percent of the total cost.  The peak revenues would occur during the manufacturing phase.  So the suppliers would be receiving $96 million in revenues in 2012 rising to $480 million in 2020. In the same time frame, suppliers of pumps and valves would enjoy revenues of $72 million in 2013 rising to $360 million in 2020.

Once the approach is fully commercialized the market could grow rapidly. Variables will include:

·        Cost, safety, and performance of SMRs installed as of 2022

·        The large nuclear program success

·        Environmental perception of new coal-fired power plants as a midterm alternative

·        Cost of carbon sequestration

·        Cost reductions and advances in wind and solar

·        Availability and cost of unconventional gas

·        Price and availability of oil

·        World GDP growth

With an optimum outcome of the above variables, the growth could be 50 percent per year over the 2023-30 time frame.

With a relatively poor outcome of developments relative to the above variables the growth could be 10 percent per year.  With the optimum outcome revenues would reach $153 billion/yr in 2030.  The manufacturing revenue would be two years ahead or 2028 in the above chart.

The poor outcome of just under $13 billion in revenues in 2030 is by no means the worst outcome.  If developments relative to several of the variables are very negative, the market could evaporate. If an accident of significant magnitude or several accidents of modest magnitude would occur, the market would be greatly impacted.

There is the possibility of a market which is even bigger than the $153 billion. The reason is that even with the optimum scenario, the SMR installed capacity will only be a few percent of the total world electrical capacity.  The present installed generating capacity is 4,000,000 MW. An additional 2,000,000 MW will be added to world generating capacity by 2030. In addition, another 2,500,000 MW of capacity will be replaced.

So net additional capacity over the 2011-30 period will be 4,500,000 MW.  The optimistic scenario only assumes that 2.5 percent of this additional capacity will be SMR.  There is the potential for revenues far beyond the forecast if SMR were to become the preferred energy generation option.

Revenues by Year for Small Modular Reactors (SMR) Worldwide ($ Million)

You can register for our free McIlvaine Newsletters at: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/brochures/Free_Newsletter_Registration_Form.htm

Bob McIlvaine
President
847 784 0012 ext 112

rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

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191 Waukegan Road Suite 208 | Northfield | IL 60093

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