Power Air Quality Insights No

Power Air Quality Insights
No. 149 March 20, 2014

WELCOME

The following insights can be sent to you every week. This alert contains the details on the upcoming hot topic hour, breaking news, and the headlines for the Utility E Alert for the previous week. This is one of a number of free services. You can sign up for any of these newsletters and of course request to be removed from the mailing list at any time. See registration following the newsletter.

· Top Ten Air and Water Monitoring Companies Had A 20 Percent Market Share Last Year

McIlvaine is launching a series of websites covering Industry Options. Each contains one or more continuing analyses of the decisions which the designer and operator have to make.

Access to each website is free to anyone. The intelligence system with all the background information is also free with no password required. Additional papers, presentations, etc. are invited. This includes text in other languages as long as an English summary is included. A special emphasis will be given to capturing the intelligence being generated in China.

The background information will be evaluated and Continuous Analyses prepared. These continuous analyses will provide independent evaluation of the life cycle costs and performance of all the various system and component options. Access to these analyses will be free to owner/operators but will require a subscription for others.

Suppliers can choose to have McIlvaine conduct an Application Audit. This audit is a white paper with third party experts making independent evaluations. The niche experts making these evaluations will be encouraged to focus on a very narrow area to ensure that they have unsurpassed knowledge of the subject. The Application Audits will be posted and free to anyone.

There will be periodic webinars on each subject. For example, there will be several continuing analyses under Gas Turbine Emission Control. One will deal with CEMS. A webinar will be held on April 17^th to debate six different approaches to measuring NH₃. This follows previous webinars on the subject and a feature article in Air Pollution Control magazine. Two webinars relative to continuing analyses on mercury reduction are also scheduled.

Webinars are free to plant owner/operators, but there is a charge for others. Here is the near-term schedule: Hot Topic Hour Schedule

On March 27^th we will be comparing SDA, CFB and other CDS designs including NID and GSA. We will be reviewing every aspect in which the designs differ and discuss the merits of these differences. Webinar registrants will have access to the information posted in the intelligence system.

The format will be a series of questions which are first addressed by the panelists and then the other participants. We have panelists who are third party experts on dry scrubbers. They are:

One task will be to try to come to agreement relative to decisive classification and the specific nomenclature. We have selected the first split at Chamber vs. In-duct. Maybe better words are vessel and DSI but, in any case, we will be trying to resolve the nomenclature issues in the webinar next week.

We will be focused on the comparison of the major alternatives. If the chamber options are circulating dry scrubbers and SDA, how do they compare? Paul Farber has contributed several good papers and will be a panelist next week. Here is how we summarized one of his analyses of SDA and CDS:

There is still the need to breakdown CDS. What is the next level among CFB, GSA, NID, etc? How many segments should be at one level and should there be sub-segments?

We are looking at dual fluid nozzles vs. rotary atomizers, the size of NIDS nozzles, air slides vs. screw conveyors and many other components. We are focusing right now on the chamber segment but we already have a great deal of DSI information on the site. This site is free to one and all although the webinars and continuing analyses are more restricted. Let us know what you think of this very different new approach.

We are preparing a website on calcium based wet scrubbers similar to the one on dry scrubbing. We will be looking at the four main components which are gas (flow rate and distribution), liquid (droplet size and distribution), slurry exposure (time and sequence) and droplet elimination.

There are three basic designs of limestone scrubbers. Here is a starting point relative to assessing the advantages and disadvantages of each:

Parameter	Tray	Spray	Sump
Pump Power	Medium	High	Low
Fan Power	Higher	Lower	Higher
Plugging Potential	Higher	Lower	Higher
Height	Lower	Higher	Lower
Experience Ranking	2^nd	1^st	3^rd
Suppliers (Examples)	Babcock & Wilcox, Wheelabrator (FW)	Alstom Mitsubishi	Chiyoda Alstom
Particulate Removal	Higher	Lower	Higher
Biggest Concern	Tray Plugging	Nozzle Plugging	Level Control
Efficiency Increase Routes	2^nd Tray	More Spray Banks	Higher Level Differential

Within each category there are sub-categories. The tray design includes perforated plates and several variations. One is called the rod deck and was installed at Cilco Duck Creek Three and Northern States Power Sherburne. Instead of round holes, there is the open area between parallel pipes about 2-e inches in diameter.

There are significant variations among spray tower designs. For example, MHI has a double contact with down flow followed by upflow. This design utilizes rapid air flow. The air velocity is one of the big questions. It can be 10-20 fps. At lower flows there is more retention time. At higher flows there is more turbulence. It can be argued that the turbulence is more important in the reaction than is the retention time. There is a tradeoff between vessel size and pressure loss.

The role of mist eliminators cannot be underestimated. The question is when you have higher turbulence do you need better mist elimination? Efficiency, water (for cleaning) consumption, pressure loss and configuration all need to be reviewed.

The role of nozzles varies greatly between the spray tower and other types. It is critical in the spray tower design, but may be relatively unimportant in the other designs.

We are now preparing the website for “Scrubber Design Options for Calcium Reagents” and welcome input which will be relevant. Much of it will come from our existing FGD & DeNO_x Knowledge System which we have been compiling since 1974. But we need to make use of the latest Insights and look forward to your contribution.

Sales of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems will exceed $7.7 billion in 2015. This is the latest forecast in FGD Market and Strategies published by the McIlvaine Company. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)

The forecast includes both wet and dry scrubbing processes which remove sulfur dioxide from power plant exhaust stacks.

World Region	2015
Africa	400
CIS	0
East Asia	5,000
Eastern Europe	300
Middle East	100
NAFTA	1,100
South & Central America	100
West Asia	100
Western Europe	600
Total	7,700

Over 65 percent of the system revenues will be in East Asia. The majority of the sales in this region will be to power plants in China. The revenues per MW in China will be only 50 percent as large as the system revenues per MW in most other countries. Therefore, the Chinese market share based on FGD MW will be in excess of 80 percent of the total. Most of the Chinese sales will be for new power plants, but there will also be some retrofits to old power plants without FGD. China has more scrubbers than any other country, but also more power plants without scrubbers than any other country.

There is competition among technologies. Wet scrubbers using limestone and making wallboard quality gypsum as an end product will be the most popular. Dry and semi-dry systems using lime will carve out a significant but minor share. In the U.S., dry injection system revenues will be substantial. These lower capital cost systems will be purchased for older power plants where the higher operating cost is preferable. Many of these power plants may be retired in the next ten years, so the expense over the remaining lifetime will be much less than if the expected life were twenty-five years.

Top Ten Air and Water Monitoring Companies Had A 20 Percent Market Share Last Year

The top ten companies in the air and water monitoring market had 2013 revenues of $4.7 billion representing 20 percent of the $23 billion market. This ranking analysis has just been posted to the McIlvaine report, Air & Water Pollution Monitoring World Markets. (www.mcilvainecompany.com)

The market share is down slightly from a similar analysis last year. This is in part due to the growth of Asian suppliers.

Top Ten Air and Water Monitoring Companies
Company	Ranking
Emerson	1
Endress + Hauser	2
Thermo Fisher	3
Horiba	4
Yokogawa	5
Xylem	6
Siemens	7
Mettler Toledo	8
Invensys	9
ABB	10

There are many thousands of companies participating in this market with sales of less than $100 million. The total market includes those companies providing periodic sampling. They often consist of a handful of people with a modest investment in portable test equipment.

At the other end of the spectrum is Emerson which has complete automation systems for air and water monitoring and control. It is also a major supplier of combustion analyzers including oxygen and carbon monoxide. The forecasts include distributed control systems and PLCs used in the monitoring process. For this reason the top ten list includes not only Emerson but Yokogawa, Siemens, Invensys and ABB.

Endress + Hauser and Thermo Fisher have the widest assortment of instruments, but they are not at the top of the rankings because they do not supply extensive software.

The automotive test system portion for Horiba is included because it is centered on measuring the impurities in the gas discharged from engines. This is a substantial portion of Horiba sales and, thus, elevates the company to the top ten rankings.

There are several segments of the market growing at double-digit rates. One is the market for continuous emission monitoring systems for gas turbines. Another is the monitoring of shale gas and oil extraction and processing. The highest rate of growth is for continuous emissions monitoring systems for coal-fired boilers in China. Much of these revenues are captured by Chinese companies even though the instruments are purchased internationally. This growth has been another factor in the slight market share decline by the largest companies.

In a set of major legal victories for the Federal Government and for Cape Wind, United States District Judge Reggie B. Walton issued rulings against project opponents in their four lawsuits that had challenged Cape Wind’s permitting approval by the U.S. Department of Interior.

In his rulings, Judge Walton upheld the Department of the Interior’s review and approval of Cape Wind, a thorough and comprehensive permitting process that took 10 years. The Court soundly rejected the plaintiffs’ request to vacate the granting of the nation’s first offshore wind lease by the Department of the Interior to Cape Wind.

Judge Walton rejected a long list of legal claims project opponents had raised, including arguments over navigational safety, alternative locations, alternative technologies, historic preservation, Native American artifacts, sea turtles, and the adequacy of the project’s environmental impact statement and biological opinions. In two narrow instances, Judge Walton has asked Federal agencies to clarify its findings on whales and birds. The order indicates that the case is administratively closed until the Court is provided with the clarifications. Cape Wind expects these two compliance actions to be minor agency administrative actions that will not impact Cape Wind’s financing schedule.

DTE Energy Services, Inc. (DTEES) has finished its construction project to convert a shuttered coal-fired power plant at the Port of Stockton to operate on biomass fuel.

The plant, known as Stockton Biomass, began commercial operations on February 21, 2014. It is selling its renewable power to PG&E Company to help it meet its renewable energy requirement.

The plant will use about 320,000 tons of woody biomass fuel annually to generate about 45 megawatts of power – enough electricity to meet the needs of 45,000 homes. The fuel primarily is derived from urban wood waste, tree trimmings and agricultural processes.

DTEES, a subsidiary of DTE Energy, is headquartered in Ann Arbor, MI. It has completed similar biomass conversions in Cassville, WI and Bakersfield, CA. The company also operates biomass power plants in Woodland, CA and Mobile, AL.

Xcel Energy Announces Plan to Significantly Boost Solar Energy Resources Through Large Scale Projects

Citing the advantage of adding more solar energy at a lower customer cost, Xcel Energy submitted to state regulators a plan to add up to 150 megawatts of large-scale solar resources in its Upper Midwest service territory by the end of 2016.

Xcel Energy is proposing that a significant portion of Minnesota’s solar standard be met through large-scale projects, which are more efficient and less expensive than rooftop solar and smaller distributed systems. The company notified the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission of its intent to issue a request for proposals by April 15, 2014, for large-scale solar projects totaling up to 150 megawatts to be installed by December 31, 2016, prior to a reduction in the federal Investment Tax Credit for solar.

The omnibus energy bill passed last spring by the Minnesota Legislature and signed into law by Governor Mark Dayton requires investor-owned utilities to acquire 1.5 percent of retail electricity sales from solar energy by 2020. Xcel Energy estimates that it will need approximately 300 megawatts of solar capacity to meet the standard.

DeNova Homes, PetersenDean and Canadian Solar Offer Solar as Standard in New Lathrop, CA Home Community

DeNova Homes recently announced the future opening of the new contemporary community of Edgewater at River Islands in Lathrop, CA, offering all new homes with solar as standard, in a partnership with PetersenDean Roofing & Solar and Canadian Solar.

While many new home communities offer solar as an option, Edgewater at River Islands is one of the few that offer solar as a standard feature. The community, which includes a variety of other eco-friendly attributes, has 92 lots that provide 1.5 kW Canadian Solar Standard on every home backed by a 25-year warranty. Buyers will have the option to upgrade to 3.0 kW or 6.0 kW, depending on plans, elevations, orientations and available roof space. Federal tax credits totaling about $2,500 are also available for most homeowners with solar roofing. Additionally, estimated five-year savings can total up to $10,296.

A123 Energy Solutions announced the commissioning of a 500-kilowatt Grid Storage Solution (GSS™) for Dongfang Electric Machinery Co., a manufacturer of power generating equipment in China. The 500 kW, 125 kWh GSS is connected to the microgrid at Dongfang Electric Machinery Co'sHangzhou facility and will be performing renewable integration for the site, where it is co-located with wind, PV, and conventional generation resources. This energy storage installation, A123 Energy's second deployment in China, is a High Rate (HR) GSS and is not containerized, but instead is housed in one of the site's existing buildings.

The HR GSS is well suited for accommodating fluctuations in variable energy resources like wind or solar, and can be used to improve the efficiency of traditional thermal generators as well. Operating worldwide in revenue service since 2009, the HR GSS forms the bulk of the grid energy storage that A123 Energy Solutions has deployed to date, and performs in a variety of applications including frequency regulation, reserve, ramp management, and T&D support.

§ Calpine Corporation acquires 1,050 Combined Cycle Power Plant in Texas

§ Contract Negotiations approved for New, Natural Gas Power Plant at Carlsbad, CA

On Thursday at 10 a.m. Central time, McIlvaine hosts a 90 minute web meeting on important energy and pollution control subjects. Power webinars are free for subscribers to either Power Plant Air Quality Decisions or Utility Tracking System. The cost is $300.00 for non-subscribers..

See below for information on upcoming Hot Topic Hours. We welcome your input relative to suggested additions.

DATE	SUBJECT
March 27, 2014	Analysis Of Dry Scrubber Options	Top notch third party expert panelists and lots of background info
April 10, 2014	Mercury Chemicals In Fuel, Flue Gas and Scrubbing Liquor	Important alternative to sorbents
April 17, 2014	Measurement Of Gas Turbine Emissions Including NH₃	Six different options
May 1, 2014	850^oF Particulate Removal With Ceramic Filter Media	Could change the whole back end
May 8, 2014	Sorbent Traps vs. Mercury CEMS	Sorbent traps are competitive
May 15, 2014	Gas Intake Filters: HEPA or Medium Efficiency	More information
May 29, 2014	Stellite Delamination in Power Plant Steam Valves	More information
June 5, 2014	Dry vs. Wet Cooling	Surprising number of ACC’S. Why?
June 12, 2014	HRSG Issues (Fast Start, Tube Failures)	Lots of challenges to cycle 200 X/yr
June 26, 2014	CCR	$ billions Needed
July/August 2014	Boiler Feedwater Treatment Condensate Polishing for Peaking Turbines 316 B Water Issues Gas Turbine Permitting Issues *Give us your opinion about topics we should consider*

§ Calpine Corporation acquires 1,050 Combined Cycle Power Plant in Texas