Cross-State Air Decision Will Have Only Minor Impact on the Equipment Market

Earlier this week the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) was vacated and effectively replaced with the original Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR). The McIlvaine Company forecasts that this development will change the U.S. FGD and NOx control market forecasts by less than ten percent over the next five years. It will have a less than one percent impact on the world markets. Here are the present forecasts in FGD World Markets and NOx Control World Markets.

          U.S. FGD System Revenues ($ Millions)

Subject

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Dry Lime

146

337

212

122

168

248

337

341

Other

45

103

65

37

51

75

103

104

Wet Calcium

1,019

 2,343

 1,471

846

 1,171

 1,726

 2,342

 2,371

Total

1,210

 2,783

 1,748

  1,005

1,390

2,049

2,782

2,816

 

U.S. NOx Control Revenues ($ Millions)

Subject

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Catalyst

  433

   378

  458

  394

  378

  409

 445

 393

SCR

 989

 1,449

  731

  811

  863

  907

 339

 359

Total

1,422

1,827

1,189

1,205

1,241

1,316

784

752

 

The minor aspect of the change in the market is due to the following:

·         CAIR already requires most of what would be spent on CASPR

·         The new air toxic rules which require HCl capture are an important driver independent of CASPR

·         A large part of the U.S. FGD market is in upgrading existing systems

·         Catalyst sales will be an increasingly large segment of the NOx market

·         The U.S. is now a relatively small segment of the world market

The bigger variable is the way the states address their responsibility to meet ambient PM2.5, NOx and SO2 limits. The averaging period is over the next few years. This means state regulations should already be in place to ensure that the 2017 limits are achieved when averaging the previous three years. Very extensive NOx and SO2 removal would be required to ensure compliance. However, there does not seem to be a high level of concern about this requirement. Therefore the McIlvaine forecasts are based on the likelihood that the states will not take the mandated actions. If this should change, there would be a much larger air pollution equipment market.

For more information on FGD World Markets, click on:

http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48#n027

For more info on NOx Control World Markets, click on:

http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48#n035