·        Many Conferences covering Air Filtration in April-June Period

·        Air Filter Market Revenues Expanding Due to Higher Quality Substitutions

·        World Cleanroom Space will Increase by Six Million Square Feet This Year

Many Conferences covering Air Filtration in April-June Period

A number of conferences and exhibitions in the second quarter are generating valuable air filtration data.  Some of the industry conferences are included because of the inlet filters for gas turbine intakes, compressors, and even control rooms.

The AFS spring conference had many good papers on air filtration subjects. Here is a summary of the technical program:

TUESDAY, MAY 7, 2013

10:10 am – 11:50 am – Concurrent Session
Water and Process Fluid Filtration, Wenping Li, Ernest Mayer – Co-moderators
□   Sour Water Production and Processing in Oil & Gas Operations, David Engel, Ph.D.
□   Estimating Municipal Filter Press Cloth Life, Ernest Mayer, Ph.D.
□  A Review of the Rotary Pressure Filter for the Filtration of a Liquefied Gas Slurry, Barry Perlmutter
□   How to Compare Performance of Domestic Pool and Spa Filters, Christophe Peuchot

Filter Testing, Thad Ptak – Moderator
□   Calibration Filter, KC Kwok
□   Zen of Filter Classes, R. Vijayakumar
□   Impact of Residential HVAC Filtration on Indoor Concentration of Submicron Particulate Matter, Thad Ptak
□   Test Method for Measurement of Performance Degradation of Electrostatically Enhanced Filter Media, Thad Ptak

Practical Application of Filtration Media, Ed Gregor – Moderator
□   Wetlaid Media and its Application to the Filtration Industry, Andrew Goodby
□   Spinal Wound & Pleated Membrane Construction Secrets, Peter Cartwright
□   The Advantages of Nylon Nonwovens in Filtration, Albert Ortega
□   Monofilament Filtration Fabric, Robert Hamilton

1:25 pm – 3:05 pm – Concurrent Sessions

Topics in Filtration and Monitoring, Bill Laidlaw – Moderator
□   New Filtration Product Offering for High Temperature Fluid Applications Utilizing Z-Plex Technology, Travis Stifter
□   Aspire Hydrophilic PTFE Eliminates the Need for Pre-wetting, Chris Keller
□   Technique for Measuring the Particle Retention of Liquid Filters to 10 Nanometers, Gary Van Schooneveld
□   Heavy Metals Removal Using Bio-Based Adsorbents, Chuanfang Yang

Simulation & Modeling, Martin Lehmann – Moderator
□   Virtual Filter Media Development – Highlights from Eight Years of Experience, Martin Lehmann and Alexander Traut
□   Improved Modeling of Loading Kinetics in Detailed Filter Media Simulations with Geodict, Jurgen Becker
□   Coupling Different Size Scales in the Numerical Simulation of Filtration Processes, Johannes Weber
□   Modeling and Numerical Simulation on the Filter Element Scale, Ralf Kirsch

Filter Media, Mark Willingham, Rob Bender – Co-moderators
□   Advances in Filtration Technology Using Sintered Metal Filters, Ken Rubow
□   Cleaning and Validation of Metal Filters, Sue Regnolds
□   The Advantage of Bekipor ST for Use in Solid/Liquid Filtration, Jeremie De Baerdemaeker
□   Pressure Drop, Filtration Efficiency and Cleanability of Woven and Nonwoven Multi-layer Filter Media, Markus Knefel

3:20 pm – 5:00 pm – Concurrent Sessions
Filtration & Adsorption, Shagufta Patel and Michael Harenbrock – Co-moderators
□   Filtration and Separation for Zero Emission Vehicles, Michael Harenbrock
□   Gas Cleaning for Particles and Molecules; from Filtration to Adsorption, Heinz Fissan
□   Polymer-based Spherical Activated Carbon as High Performance Material for Liquid Phase Filtration Applications, Christian Schrage
□  Developing Ion Exchange Membrane from Waste Expanded Polystyrene for Heavy Metal Removal from Industrial Waste Water, Ihsan Uluturk

Measurement Techniques and Testing, Friedemann Hahn – Moderator
□   Filter System for Space Habitat:  Concept Design and Evaluation, R. Vijayakumar
□  Reducing Complexity and Cost Through Technology:  Direct Formed 2- and 3-D Filter Structures for Use in Transportation and Industrial Filtration, Brent Dillie
□   Determination of Fractional Efficiency and Loading of Compressed Air Filters in Overpressure up to 7 Bar, Martin Schmidt
□  Measurement Techniques and Data Evaluation Procedures for Filter Testing with Polydisperse Agglomerates and Aggregates, Heinz Fissan

Application of Nanofibers, George Chase – Moderator
□   Permeability, Porosity and Capture Efficiency of Filter Media with Recycled PET Nanofiber Yarns, Kitchaport Nartettamrongsutt
□   Alumina Nanofiber Membranes, Jonathan Rajala
□  Effect of Solution Properties on Electrospun PdO-TiO2 Nanofiber Morphology, Laila Shahreen

WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 2013

10:10 am – 11:50 am – Concurrent Sessions
Solid & Liquid Separation I, David Engel – Moderator
□   Filtration of Cleaning and Degreasing Baths with Automatic Filtration System Prior to Cataphoretic Painting of Car Bodies, Steffan Strasser
□   Suspended Solids, Fouling and Column Protection Using Separation Technologies, Scott Williams
□   Reduction of Cake Resistance with Filter Aids:  Improved Filterability of Hydrolyzed Biomass Suspensions, Antti Hakkinen
□   Novel Sprial Element Membrane Applications, Scott Yaeger

Oil-Mist Separation, Ben Mullins – Moderator
□   A New Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model for Coalescence Filtration, Ryan Mead-Hunter
□   Field Testing of CCV Filters in On-and Off-Highway Applications, Arne Bredin
□    The Influence of Soot on a Micro and Macro Scale in CCV Filter Systems, Ryan Mead- Hunter
□   Discontinuous Filtration and Soot Measurement in Filters – Towards a More Realistic Testing Method for CCV Filters, Ben Mullins

Gas-Solid Separation, Wilson Poon – Moderator
□   Development of International Standard Test Methods for Gas Turbine Inlet Filters, Bruce McDonald
□   The Impact of a Newly Developed Testing Protocol for Gas Turbine Intake Air Filtration Systems, Bob Burkhead – Blue Heaven
□   Laboratory Test for Water and Salt Water Coalescence/Migration which Mimics In-situ Conditions for Gas Turbine Filters, Al Vatine
□   Removal of Water Droplets from Intake Air, Wilson Poon

1:25 pm – 3:05 pm Concurrent Sessions

Solid & Liquid Separation II, Shagufta Patel – Moderator
□   Separation of Water Dispersions in Diesel Fuel Using Superhydrophobic Tubes of Nanofibers, Goutham Viswanadam and George Chase
□   Innovative Coalescence Media Studies in Water Removal Applications from Lubrication Oil, Ruijun Chen, Ph.D.
□  Demulsifier-free Slop-oil Emulsion Destabilization, Ingemar Quintero
□   Filter Media for Removal for Emulsified Water from Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel, Yiren Wu

Cabin Air Filtration, Cedric Dackam – Moderator
□   Electret vs. Nanofibers for Automotive Cabin Air Filtration, Andreas Seeberger
□   Investigation on the Filtration Efficiency of Vehicle Cabin Air Filters Affecting In-Cabin to On-Roadway (I/O) Ultrafine Particle Concentration Ratios, Bin Xu
□   Media Concepts for Meeting the Recent Challenges in Automotive Cabin Air Filtration, Dr. Andreas Scope
□  Validation of a Soot Generator and Characterization of Air Filtration Media Using Soot as a Test Aerosol,  Christine Stanfel, Ph.D.

Latest and Greatest I, Rob Bender – Moderator

Panel Discussion (30 minutes)
□   Ed Gregor
□   David Engel
□   Peter Cartwright
□   Klaas De Waal

Presentations (12 minutes each)
□   Carolina Filters Inc., Sales and Service Capabilities – Sue Reynolds
□   Mental Manufacturing by Olds Filtration – Don Olds
□   Kaydon Custom Filters – Coalescing Success with Novel Cartridge Design - Ruijun Chen
□   Cerex Advanced Spunbond Fabrics – John Hancock
□   Parker BVC Effective Filtration and Disinfection Treatment System – Jackie Gallagher
□   Purolator-Facet-Benefits of GKN Sintered Metal Membrane - Dave Raider

3:20 pm – 5:00 pm Concurrent Sessions

Solid-Liquid Separation, Bharath Raghavan – Moderator
□   Static Control Filter Media:  Investigation of the Impact on Electro-static Charging of Hydraulic Fluids Van Boven
□   Fundamentals of Filtration in Gas Processing Plants – A Filter is just a Filter, Right?, Ken Winston
□   SiC Membranes – Economic Solutions for Extreme Water Applications – Kathy Radosevich

Filtration in Transportation, Barry Verdegan and Larry Hollingsworth – Co-moderators
□   Case Study:  Impact of Poor Diesel Fuel Quality on an Urban Fleet, Barry Verdegan
□   Keep Running:  Bulk Diesel Fuel Filtration, Why the WW Fuel Charter may not be Clean Enough and the Importance of Inlet Filtration, Scott GrossBauer
□   Determination of Water Droplet Size in Diesel and Aviation Fuels, Larry Hollingsworth
□   Complete Filtration for Non-vehicle Liquefied Propane Gas, Janelle Hampton

Latest and Greatest II, Rob Bender – Moderator

Presentations Continued
□   Sigma Design – Separation Technology, Electro-Mechanical Design & Build Solutions for Products, Pilots and Test Systems – Jerry Lynch
□   Sefar – Joel Crafton
□   Nexo-Efficiency Improvement in the Process Industry – David Engel
□   Ahlstrom – Helping Customers Stay Ahead using Ahlstrom Captimax – Andrew Goodby
□   Fluid Measurement Technologies and CT Associates - Particle Size and Concentration Standards for Sub – 100nm Applications – David Blackford & Gary Van Schooneveld
□   Cerex Advanced Spunbond Nylon Fabrics – John Hancock
□   Porex – Tubular Membrane Filtration for Metal Precipitation to WasteWater – Doug Frick
□   Jonell-the Rapid-LOKTM Sealing System – Hebron Burkhall
□   TSI:  Component Filter Test System:  CFTS Model 3150 – Tim Johnson

THURSDAY, MAY 9, 2013

9:30 am – 10:45 am – Concurrent Sessions

Novel Separation Technologies, Mathias Stolarski– Moderator
□   Characterization of Properties and Separation Efficiency of Layered Nonwoven Filter Media, Mathias Stolarski
□   Advanced Treatment Technologies for Food Processing Wastewater Treatment, Peter Cartwright
□   Engineered Biofiltration:  Destroying Persistent Non-point Source Pollutants using Engineered Nano-glass Adsorbents Sold under the Trade Name Osorb, 
     Stephen Spoonamore
□   Introduction to Hollow Fiber Membranes, Sandra Iverson

Filtration in Transport II, Barry Verdean and Larry Hollingsworth– Co-moderator
□   Coalescence of Submerged Water Droplets in Diesel by Electro wetting, Abdulwahab Aljuhani
□   The Experimental Performance of Isolated Multi-layer Media in Gas-Liquid Coalescence Filtration, Yiren Wu
□   On the Relevance of SAE J1488 and Mono-olein Addition for Evaluating the Performance of Fuel-Water Separators (III), Yan Li
□   Voice of the Customer:  Why We Filter Fuels and Lubes for Common Rail Fuel Systems, Barry Verdegan

CFR Public Session – Integrative Filtration Research and Filter Loading, Jing Wang – Moderator
□   Integrative Filtration Research at the Center for Filtration Research (CFR), David Pui
□   Determining Dust Cake Porosity Based on Particle Distribution through Brownian Simulation, Gus Linquist
□   Filter Loading of Agglomerate Particles, Da Ren Chen

10:55 am – 12:10 pm Concurrent Sessions

Filter Testing II, Christophe Peuchot– Moderator
□   New International Standard Test Methods of Aerospace Filters, Christophe Peuchot
□   Long Term Stability of the Calibration Process of Optical Particle Counting Systems, Michael Schumacher
□   Filter Cut Point and Pore Size Distribution using Certified Reference Microspheres, Graham Rideal

Air and Gas Filtration, Andrew Traut – Moderator
□   Modeling Depth and Surface Dust-Loading in Pleated Air Filters, Hooman Tafreshi
□  Comparison of the Particle Penetration through Using Different Air Filter Test Methods, Tim Johnson
□   Meltblown – A Unique Technology in Air and Liquid Filtration, Christine Sun

CFR Public Session – Filtration of Liquid-borne Nanoparticles, Viruses and Fly Ash, Da Ren Chen – Moderator
□   Liquid-borne Nanoparticles Filtration, Tsz Yan Ling
□   Measurement of Airborne Viruses and its Application in Virus Aerosol Filtration Research,  Zhilio Zu
□   Characterization of Fly Ash Collected in Filtration Systems in Waste Incineration Plants, Jing Wang

Air Filter Market Revenues Expanding Due to Higher Quality Substitutions

The market for filters used to treat indoor air will be rise to over $6.7 billion this year. Market growth is in part due to the upgrading of filtration quality. This is the conclusion reached by the McIlvaine Company in Air Filtration and Purification World Markets. 

($ Millions) 

There has been a steady penetration of the medium efficiency M5-6 F7-9 filters into the residential and commercial markets. This efficiency segment is now three times larger than the low efficiency G1-4.

Now there is a trend for the high efficiency H10-17 to expand at the expense of the medium efficiency filters. One of the biggest applications for this conversion is gas turbine intakes. A March McIlvaine Webinar, included as part of the report, documents the lower maintenance and longer operation of gas turbines when high efficiency inlet filters are purifying the combustion air. These filters cost as much as 400 percent of the medium efficiency filters, but the return on investment (ROI) has been a matter of weeks in some cases.

The speakers pointed out that the economic advantage is site specific. If the turbine is going to operate only on peaking service or is operating in a pristine environment, the high ROI may not be achieved.

Another upgrade trend has been to replace the conventional particulate filter with a filter that removes both particulate and gas phase contaminants. The addition of an activated carbon coating on the filter will result in odor and acid gas capture.

Electronic air filters that are included in the report are those which have air intake and discharge. The report does not include the portable ionizing filters which are popular but greatly handicapped by the air flow patterns in the area. The duct based electronic filters are popular with owners of large residences and commercial buildings. The periodic filter replacement is eliminated.

Media developments such as membranes and nanofibers continue to offer better efficiency at equivalent pressure loss. In semiconductor facilities, the energy consumed by the filters is a significant percentage of the total plant requirement.

For more information on Air Filtration and Purification World Markets click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=48#n022

World Cleanroom Space will Increase by Six Million Square Feet This Year

By 2014 there will be 131 million ft² of cleanroom space in use across the world. This will be an increase of five percent over 2013. This is the latest forecast in Cleanrooms World Markets published by the McIlvaine Company.

Cleanroom Space in Use

(Million ft²)

This is net space in operation and reflects the retirements of older plants. The semiconductor industry generally builds new plants rather than renovating existing ones. This is due to contamination concerns.

Asia has surpassed the other regions due to its dominance in flat panel displays, hard disk drives, storage, and photovoltaics. China, Taiwan and South Korea are leading investors in semiconductor chip plants.

The semiconductor industry is the largest user of cleanrooms worldwide. The amount of cleanroom space is now at near record highs. Semiconductor sales for 2012 reached $291.6 billion, the industry’s third-highest yearly total ever, but a decrease of 2.7 percent from the record total of $299.5 billion set in 2011.

Some segments are in decline but are offset by growth in others; facing competition from tablets, smart phones, solid state drives (SSD), and global hard disk drives (HDD). Market revenue in 2013 will decline more than 10 percent this year. Revenue is set to drop to $32 billion in 2013.

The pharmaceutical industry continues to show steady growth. Much of the new growth is taking place outside the U.S. and Europe. The pharmaceutical industry in Russia has been witnessing a double-digit growth rate recently. According to the new regulations that will be enforced in Russia from 2014, it will be imperative for the pharmaceutical companies to pursue GMP-compliant production procedures.

Over the last decade the solar industry has had the highest percentage growth. Photovoltaic Module shipments in 2013 are forecast to exceed 34,000 MW, up 10 percent over 2012.

For more information on World Cleanroom Markets, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=73

World GDP Updates is a Monthly part of the Air Filter Report

Subscribers to the Air Filtration and Purification Markets receive monthly updates in a number of industries. They also receive a monthly update of GDP changes for regions around the world. Here is the April 2013 Update:

AMERICAS

UNITED STATES

The picture of the American economy has improved -- looking forward and backward.

Economic output in last year's fourth quarter was revised slightly higher, putting the nation's growth rate for all of 2012 at a modest 2.2 percent.

The Commerce Department said that U.S. gross domestic product, or total goods and services produced, expanded at an annual rate of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, after adjusting for inflation. That is down from 3.1 percent in the third quarter, but better than the 0.1 percent real GDP growth in the government's previous estimate of fourth-quarter activity.

The weakness in the fourth quarter output was exaggerated by an unusually big drop in federal defense spending and a sharp reduction in inventory accumulation. Real personal spending actually picked up a bit in the fourth quarter, and housing and nonresidential investments both saw strong gains.

Corporate profits grew by a healthy 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. And consumers' after-tax incomes surged at year's end along with dividend and bonus payments, ahead of expected tax increases, the Commerce data show.

Since the recovery officially began in mid-2009, the underlying growth rate of the economy has been a little above 2 percent, considered by many economists as sluggish given the deep recession. But this year's opening quarter is looking much better. 

Despite the fiscal head winds of higher payroll taxes and government spending cuts, the U.S. economy is set to grow 3.5 percent in the first quarter, according to a new forecast by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of mainly advanced economies.

The OECD cited the Federal Reserve's stimulus policy, saying that "monetary easing appears to be feeding through to the real economy as household consumption has picked up and the housing sector has begun to rebound."

Many private economists are not quite that bullish, uncertain about the effects of higher taxes on consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of American economic activity.

The latest OECD forecast sees U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter slipping back to 2 percent as fiscal spending cuts weigh on the economy.

Still, the near-term outlook for the U.S., as well as some other major economies, has brightened in recent weeks. 

The OECD predicted that Japan's economy, the world's third largest, would expand 3.2 percent in the first quarter, thanks to fiscal and monetary stimulus. Germany, the fourth-biggest economy, is expected to rebound as well, with its GDP advancing 2.3 percent in the first quarter, even as several other major Eurozone countries remain stuck in the mud.

China, the world's second-largest economy behind the U.S., is likely to grow well above 8 percent in the first half of this year, the OECD said.

ASIA

CHINA

China's annual rate of economic growth likely nudged higher in the first three months of 2013 versus the last quarter of 2012, with fixed asset investment and factory output growth in double digits cementing a mild rebound, according to a Reuter’s poll.

Evidence of a second successive quarter of rising year-on-year growth will further reinforce the view of investors that China's government has successfully engineered a recovery from 2012's 13-year low of 7.8 percent that is gaining traction.

Meanwhile with the annual rate of consumer inflation expected to ease to 2.4 percent from February's 10-month high of 3.2 percent, the urgency for policymakers to begin tightening monetary conditions at an early stage in the recovery cycle is reduced. 

"We estimate GDP grew at a faster year-on-year pace of 8.1 percent in Q1," analysts at China International Capital Corp (CICC) wrote in a note to clients, outlining their calls for the March data cycle.

That is above the 8.0 percent consensus of 19 economists polled by Reuters and is driven largely by expectations of a stronger than anticipated contribution to growth of real estate sales.

CICC analysts calculate that property sales will contribute about one percentage point more to growth in Q1 than in Q4 last year, offsetting slowing growth in wholesale, retail and other industries.

Retail sales growth has been curtailed in recent months since the government launched an internal austerity drive at the end of last year, designed to cut down excessive banqueting and gift-giving that is often linked to corruption.

Economists in the Reuters poll expect retail sales to have expanded by 12.5 percent in March, slightly higher than the 12.3 rate seen in the combined January-February period, but still around 2-3 percentage points lower than typically seen through 2012 

Fixed asset investment, closely tied to real estate transactions, has seen a gentle upswing since around the middle of last year when China's Communist Party government decided to take action to underpin economic growth hit by faltering demand for the country's exports 

Gross exports account for around a third of economic output in China and a drop off in orders as the United States and the European Union - the country's two biggest customers - dealt with their own economic problems was felt through the Chinese factory sector.

Fixed asset investment is forecast to have expanded at an annual pace of 21.3 percent year-to-date in March, a whisker higher than the 21.2 percent pace in the first two months of 2013.

The downside risks to economic growth, however, are similarly tied to real estate, investment in which was worth 13.8 percent of GDP in 2012 and directly impacts around 40 other business sectors in the economy.

Rising real estate prices, alongside rising fixed asset investment, have sparked concerns that home costs could start to spiral out of control and lead the government to declare that a raft of measures to calm frothy prices must be strictly enforced 

That has led investors to start fretting that tighter property policies could constrain the overall economy.

That is a significant risk given that construction was the main driving force behind a rise in the fast-growing services sector of the economy in March, according to a survey of purchasing managers.

The real estate crackdown was one of the key reasons cited by Bank of America/Merrill Lynch in late March when it cut its Q1 annual growth forecast to 7.9 percent from 8.3 percent.

INDIA

Finance Minister P Chidambaram said the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country will grow by a little over 6 percent in the fiscal year 2013-14 and the revenue targets would be met. He also noted that the revenue growth of the FY 2012-13, which stands at 16.7 percent, was "commendable".

SINGAPORE

Singapore's economy probably stalled in the first quarter of 2013, hurt by a sharp contraction in manufacturing that offset improved performances by services and construction.

According to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, the city-state's GDP likely expanded by 0.2 percent in January to March from a year ago, slowing from the 1.5 percent growth recorded in the last three months of 2012. 

On a annualized quarter-on-quarter basis, Singapore's GDP probably grew by 1.0 percent after seasonal adjustments, down from 3.3 percent in October-December.

Bank of America's Southeast Asia economist Chua Hak Bin said ongoing government measures to make it harder for employers to recruit low-cost workers from abroad has hurt Singapore's manufacturing sector more than services, as seen from the weak industrial production figures for January and February.

EUROPE / AFRICA / MIDDLE EAST

BULGARIA

Bulgaria cut its economic growth forecast for this year to one percent because of low domestic consumption and high unemployment.

The economy will expand 1.8 percent in 2014 and 2.9 percent in 2015 after growing 0.8 percent in 2012, the Finance Ministry in Sofia said in its three-year fiscal plan published on its website. The previous government, which resigned on February 20 after protests against high utility bills turned violent, had forecast economic growth of 1.2 percent under a pessimistic scenario and 1.9 percent under an optimistic one.

President Rosen Plevneliev appointed an interim government led by Marin Raikov on March 12 to organize and hold early elections on May 12. Bulgaria survived the euro-area debt crisis without borrowing from abroad and sustained tight spending policies, which led to anti-austerity protests. 

This year’s forecast is based on “declining domestic consumption observed at the end of 2012, which will continue in the beginning of 2013, as well as on expectations of increased exports” as the European economy recovers in the second half of the year, the ministry said.

Unemployment is expected to rise this year to more than 13 percent and fall to 12.8 percent in 2014, the ministry said. The number of jobless people rose to 12 percent in February, according to the Employment Agency. 

The interim government raised this year’s budget deficit forecast to 1.4 percent of gross domestic product from 1.3 percent, after a gap of 0.5 percent in 2012, the ministry said. The shortfall is forecast at 1.3 percent in 2014, one percent in 2015 and 0.8 percent in 2016.

The country plans to sell domestic bonds worth as much as 1.3 billion lev ($864 million) a year from 2014 to 2016 to finance the budget, public infrastructure projects and repay debt, the ministry said.

The next government will need to sell bonds on global markets to redeem $1.08 billion in global bonds due in 2015, according to the ministry. Bulgaria’s public debt was 17.6 percent of GDP in 2012.

Bulgaria’s average inflation will slow to 1.8 next year from 2.4 in 2012. Foreign direct investment is estimated at €1.578 billion ($2.1 billion) this year, after €1.48 billion in 2012, the ministry said.

“The priority of the interim Cabinet in terms of fiscal and budget policy is to guarantee financial stability and the long-term sustainability of public finances,” the ministry said.

ESTONIA

Estonia raised next year’s economic-growth forecast as exports in the newest euro-area member resume their expansion and wage growth boosts domestic demand.

Gross domestic product will probably expand 3.6 percent in 2014, more than last August’s 3.4 percent forecast, the Finance Ministry, based in the capital, Tallinn, said in an e-mailed outlook. It kept this year’s projection at 3 percent.

Estonia, which adopted the euro in 2011, has weathered Europe’s debt crisis as Swedish and Finnish demand for its electronics and wood products helped its economy recover from a 20 percent contraction in the wake of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s 2008 demise. GDP expanded 3.2 percent last year, the European Union’s third-fastest pace behind Latvia and Lithuania.

The budget deficit will probably widen to 0.5 percent of GDP this year from a preliminary 0.3 percent in 2012, the Finance Ministry said. That’s less than the 0.7 percent shortfall set in this year’s budget. The gap may be 0.1 percent in 2014, the ministry said.

Consumer prices will probably rise an average 3.4 percent this year, less than the 3.5 percent advance seen in August and last year’s 3.9 percent increase, according to the ministry. Inflation may slow to 2.8 percent next year, in line with the previous forecast, it said.

NIGERIA

The rebasing of Nigeria's GDP, which is expected to increase the estimated size of Africa's second largest economy by around 40 percent, is likely to be delayed until next year, the head of the statistics bureau said recently.

The recalculation will enable Nigeria to join the ranks of middle-income countries and put it much closer in size to South Africa, the continent's most developed economy. It will also make it an even bigger draw for foreign investors seeking a slice of Africa's fast growth rates.

But several deadlines to implement the changes have been missed, with the latest being the fourth quarter of this year.

"It is unlikely that even the target of the last quarter (this year) we will make it," Director General of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Yemi Kale told Reuters.

"I underestimated how much work needs to be done ... I think everyone understands that this is very, very crucial and has to be done properly," Kale said when explaining the delay.

Most governments overhaul gross domestic product calculations about every five years to reflect changes in output and consumption, such as mobile phones and the Internet. Nigeria has not done so since 1990.

The rebasing is expected to add about 40 percent to Nigeria's GDP, which would boost the economy of Africa's top oil producer from roughly $250 billion to around $350 billion.

That brings it very close to South Africa's currently $385 billion economy. And, with a growth rate of over 6 percent a year, compared with 3 percent in South Africa, Nigeria may eventually overtake its rival to seize the top spot.

Some economists warn that a sharp increase in the size of Nigeria's economy will mean slower growth.

"You'd expect that the bigger the economy, the slower the growth ... but I don't think it is as easy as that," Kale said.

"Regardless of what our GDP is ... we are still going to be small enough to produce even sharper growth rates."

Sectors like telecommunications, construction, hotels and entertainment should get a greater weighting after rebasing but agriculture, which currently makes up around 40 percent of GDP and 60 percent of jobs, is likely to decrease in influence.

"Growth in agriculture is ... largely subsistence, largely labor intensive, so there is a limit to how much you can grow. We know that capital intensive technology probably generates more output than labor intensive technology," Kale said.

He said the oil and gas sector, which contributes around 80 percent of government revenues, is expected to maintain a similar weighting of around 15 percent.

A larger estimated economy would most likely boost interest in Nigerian stocks, especially goods companies looking to unlock the consumer potential of Africa's most populous country.

It will also improve Nigeria's debt to GDP ratio, currently around 16 percent. But Nigeria's tax revenues, seen as woeful for a country of this size, will look even smaller.

Foreign aid donors may also find it harder to justify giving support to Nigeria if it becomes a middle-income state.

Despite roaring growth rates, 61 percent of Nigerians - or 100 million people - still live in absolute poverty.

"It is very clear that middle-income is growing, it is very clear that consumption is improving. The major problem is ensuring that this is broad based," Kale said.

RUSSIA

Russia's economy expanded by a less-than-expected one percent in the first quarter of 2013, which is likely to force a cut in the growth forecast for the full year, Economy Minister Andrei Belousov said recently.

"The results of the first quarter seem to be worse (than expected)," Belousov told journalists on the way to Hanover as part of an official visit, adding that growth in gross domestic product in the first quarter was probably around one percent.

He said the ministry would cut the 2013 GDP forecast to below 3 percent in a conservative scenario or to around 3.2 percent in an optimistic one.

The ministry had earlier estimated the economy was likely to grow by 3.6 percent this year. It warned at the end of March that it would probably cut its GDP forecast for 2013.

"I can say for sure that in our (new) forecast for 2013 we will cut estimates for exports of natural gas, (and) investment estimates will be lowered. Consequently, the pace of GDP growth will also be lowered," Belousov said.

President Vladimir Putin said inflation is likely to exceed 6.3 percent this year, surpassing an economy ministry forecast of up to 6 percent.

Putin spoke hours after Belousov said the ministry would keep its 5 percent to 6 percent inflation forecast for the year, counting on a slowing rate in consumer price rises in the coming months. Annual inflation came in at 7 percent in March.

"Looking at it now, we can reach 5.8 percent to 6 percent for the year," Belousov added, echoing estimates by the Russian central bank. But Putin said in Hanover that inflation would be "slightly bigger" than 6.2 percent to 6.3 percent.

Consumer prices often stabilize or fall in the summer months, when supply of fruit and vegetables increases.

SPAIN

Spain will revise down its economic growth forecast for 2013 and seek more time from the European Union to reduce its budget deficit as recession cuts deeper than previously expected, a government source told Reuters.

Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) will be forecast to shrink by one percent, rather than 0.5 percent, the source said, adding that the government intended to shift emphasis to growth rather than deficit reduction.

Span is negotiating with the European Commission for more time to bring its deficit within 3 percent of GDP, something it is currently expected to do by 2014, the source said.

Spain will increase its 2013 deficit target to 6 percent of GDP, from an existing forecast of 4.5 percent. The figures on growth and the deficit could still vary by one or two decimal points, depending on the outcome of talks with the Commission, the source said.

The Spanish government is now trying to balance control of state finances with more growth-oriented policies, the source said.

"We're looking into finding a middle way. In this respect, having some leeway on the deficit targets would be a good message to send to the markets."

If the country is given one extra year, the deficit-cutting path will be 6 percent of GDP in 2013, 4.5 percent in 2014 and 3 percent in 2015, the source said, adding this was the most likely outcome of the negotiations.

If it is given two extra years, the deficit target for 2013 would then be slightly higher than 6 percent and the path would be significantly eased to reach the 3 percent target in 2016, the source explained.

Spain reported a deficit of 6.98 percent of GDP in 2012, excluding the cost of propping up its ailing banks, missing its EU-agreed target, of 6.3 percent, for the second year in a row.

Although the softer deficit targets might allow more room for pro-growth policies, the new goals will add pressure to Spain's already tough funding program for this year as the government will have to finance the higher budget gap.

Spain may still be over-estimating its growth potential as the Bank of Spain, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund expect the economy to contract by around 1.5 percent this year.

The source said the program of reforms for the next three years that Madrid will send to the Commission along with the new figures will invalidate those forecasts. 

The document will include a renewed commitment to deepen the reform of the public pensions system, create an independent fiscal authority and take new steps on economic liberalization.

Madrid hopes these measures will boost activity and help the economy grow by one percent in 2014, the source said.

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