Mcilvaine Insights

No. 140   August 6, 2020

High Efficiency Mask Market and Proactive Program for Suppliers

Evidence is growing that highly efficient rather than cloth masks will be needed to vanquish COVID.  A proactive program by mask and media suppliers would greatly reduce COVID and generate very large revenues for suppliers of media and masks.

McIlvaine is providing enough information in the daily alerts and analysis that it is possible to determine the justifiable investment in a specific type of mask in a specific location and activity and determine the risk reduction. Many influencers and purchasers do not differentiate between masks and are therefore not investing in the right products to reduce their risk to levels they believe acceptable.

As a result the market for efficient masks is much smaller than it will be when buyers and influencers are presented  with reliable cost/benefit information. There is the opportunity for the suppliers to greatly increase sales by joining in a program to

1.     Ascertain reliable cost/benefit information  for every application in every country  for each type of individual

2.     Communicate that information to the influencers and decision makers with webinars, magazine articles, and white papers

3.     Receive market forecasts for the thousands of individual opportunities with an understanding of competitive advantages and disadvantages

A  preliminary cost-benefit analysis for COVID PPE  was  prepared and discussed in one of our early webinars.    http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/images/Coronavirus_Mitigation_Cost.pdf

This shows that the cost of treatment for those hospitalized with COVID can exceed $1 million if ventilators are needed. But this is a minor cost compared to the associated costs such as those who are sick but not hospitalized.  It does not take into account the pain and suffering of family members and the loss of productivity in the economy.

On the other hand wearing an efficient mask is uncomfortable compared to no mask or to a cloth mask. Breathability is a challenge with a tight fitting efficient mask.   It is hard to communicate when the faces of speakers are not visible. It is not possible to drink or eat when wearing a mask. High efficiency masks cost more than cloth masks.

Cost/Benefits of Efficient Masks

The cost/benefits of efficient masks vs other technologies need to be evaluated.  With a highly efficient mask social distancing can be reduced. So the two have to be compared.

Cost/benefits of Alternative Technologies Compared to a Specific Mask Design

The costs and benefits involve assessment of life quality. Some years ago a major supplier of surgical gowns contracted with Mcilvaine to determine the costs/ benefits of single use vs reusable surgical gowns. There was no good metric to measure the harm and good of each alternative. Therefore a new metric based on quality enhanced life days was created. This metric will be very valuable in comparing the costs/benefits of  efficient masks to vanquish COVID. The concept was covered by a hospital magazine and is displayed at

Quality Enhanced Life Days ~ A New Metric for Hospital ...  

People do not live their lives to maximize the length. They live to enjoy quality time even at the expense of longevity.  Individuals who donate kidneys or fall on grenades to save comrades are proud and extreme examples of decisions to choose quality over quantity. Every day we make many quality choices. In fact every minute we spend in an automobile statistically reduces our life by 20 seconds. So if we drive 2 hours for some form of entertainment, we are indicating that we would be willing to sacrifice 40 seconds of life for that enhancement. Sustainability therefore should be about assuring future opportunities for life quality as well as quantity .Success is best measured by a  metric called Quality Enhanced Life Days (QELD).

The costs and benefits are affected by the following parameters

Evaluations are made of respirators as an alternative to masks. It is interesting that a hospital chain has selected the MSA respirator for its personnel. There is also an  evaluation of valved masks as an alternative for those who have respiratory problems.

The forecasts assume a flexible approach similar to that in China where mask wearing is tied to the daily air pollution index. The use of masks to battle COVID will show higher benefits related to costs when the case rate in an area is high and rising.

It will depend upon the space. An N99 mask might be justified on the subway but an 95 mask in the office and an N70 mask in the park at lunch. (Masks not in use can be stored in a case the size of a large purse with UV disinfection).

Continually updated forecasts will be provided for 80 countries and sub regions x 8 years x 4 mask types x  both media and finished filters x 4 efficiencies x 10 applications = 204,800 forecasts.

 Mask Forecast by Type ($ Millions)

 Mask Forecast by Scope ($ Millions)

Mask Forecast by Country ($ Millions)

The logical segmentation of mask type is by efficiency and not whether it has to be manufactured in a sterile environment or which government agency has a standard. It is likely that standards will change when the aerosol generation factor is included.

Mask Forecast by efficiency  ($ Millions)

There is a big difference between loose fitting masks and tight-fitting respirators.  One is not designed to protect the individual while the other is. Both types can use meltblowns and efficient media. There needs to be further definition of masks/respirators for personal protection in normal daily activities.  In general an N70 respirator rather than a loose fitting mask should be the default choice      

Mask Forecast by Design ($ Millions)

 All masks by definition are for individuals.  An individual should not wear the same efficiency mask for all occasions. Therefore the market should be analyzed in terms of applications.

(Mask Forecast by Applications $ Millions)

There is continuous assessment of mask alternatives in the Alerts. We are also reporting on the many meltblown products which rely on meltblown polypropylene sandwiched between two spun bond layers. Generally there is an extra charging step. This product is in short supply. Here are some newer options. Details are shown in the Alerts.  The products are listed chronologically with the most recent articles first. They can also be accessed by any keyword.

For more information on the High Efficiency Mask Market and Proactive Program for Suppliers contact Bob McIlvaine at 847 226 2391 rmcilvain@mcilvainecompany.com

Proactive HVAC Suppliers can Boost Revenues by $60 Billion

2019 HVAC revenues were $300 billion.  2020 revenues are down due to the impact of COVID.  With a reactive HVAC program revenues could slump to $290 billion in 2021. With a proactive program to increase air changes per hour in combination with other techniques revenues would increase to $360 billion in 2021.

It is recommended that homes receive 0.35 air changes per hour (ACH) but not less than 15 cubic feet of air per minute (cfm) per person.  Isolation rooms in hospitals utilize 6 air changes per hour. Recommended ACH for malls is 6 to 10  and 4 to 10 for municipal buildings.

In a mall setting the recommended air changes per hour will be a function of the number of emitters and their viral load, the mask type worn by the emitters, the efficiency of the HVAC filters, the dilution which is a function of air changes per hour, and the masks worn by the recipient. Masks can make a 90% reduction at very low cost. Increasing filter efficiency can result in another 90% reduction. Dilution can cause a 99.9% reduction or more but the cost is very substantial.

Viral Particle Discharge from Sequential Removal Devices

An ACH increase is only effective if the air flow patterns are beneficial. This means ductwork changes and other investments.

The greatest ROI is in the masks. There is a high ROI in the HVAC filter upgrades. Dilution through increasing the ACH is the most expensive. In the above example if the emitter is wearing an N30 mask the virus load entering the HVAC will be 1.4 million.  Even with  a 95% efficient filter the discharge would be 70,000 viral particles. To reduce that to 5 would require a dilution rate of 14,000 or 14 times as much as if the high efficiency mask is used.

Another consideration is the amount of outdoor air utilized.  Some infiltration of outdoor air is needed to keep CO2 levels lower than 1000 ppm and closer to the 480 ppm which is the average for ambient air.

The quality of outdoor air must be considered. An individual will inhale and exhale 7.8 million 0.1 micron or larger particles every minute in standard air. If the equivalent of a MERV 16 filter is installed in the HVAC the individual will inhale a few hundred thousand particles per minute.  The loading on the filter will be a function of the particulate concentration in the outdoor air and particulate generated in the space. On the average day in Delhi, India the individual will inhale 178 million particles larger than 0.1 micron each minute.

The  COVID load in the outdoor air may not be zero but in most cases it an be assumed to be so low as not to be a consideration.

The ROI for the investment in HVAC should take into account the removal of air pollutants along with COVID. In Beijing, Delhi, and other polluted cities the investment can be justified just on the improvement in air quality.

The temperature and humidity of outdoor air also impact the cost of infiltrating outdoor air. In the summer in the Southern U.S., the cost of treating outside air is substantial.

The 2019 market for HVAC worldwide was $300 billion. A proactive COVID mitigation program could increase sales to $360 billion in 2021 versus $290 billion with a reactive program and a virus which disrupts the economy for several more years.

The proactive program, Coronavirus Technology Solutions is explained at www.mcilvainecompany.com

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391.