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- Briefs
- Detailed Forecasting of the Air, Water, Energy Opportunities in Pharma
Briefs
China politics versus business. Many AWE suppliers have operations in China and have found local hires to be highly qualified, dedicated and reliable. Many have research facilities in China. this indicates a high level of trust with company secrets. Chinse researchers provide extensive abstracts in English and publish in international journals. Chinese ultra-supercritical boilers with hybrid precipitator/fabric filters with carbon injection, SCR and scrubbers are the world’s cleanest. Chinese companies are major AWE purchasers. So returning international relationships to that of the previous decade would be very desirable.
U.S. Infrastructure. This initiative is now law and has some significant but not huge benefits for AWE suppliers. There is money for water reuse in the West and some for site remediation. The $55 billion for clean water will only have a minor impact. It is stretched over years. Some of the expenditures will only have minor AWE impact such as $15 billion to replace lead pipe.
Climate change. in Glasgow last week more than 100 nations signed an agreement to cut methane emissions 30 percent by 2030 as well as to end foreign development of new coal-fired power plants. However global greenhouse gas emissions have returned to their pre-pandemic levels. This disparity in goals versus reality is creating more focus on negative emission technologies. McIlvaine believes direct air capture is far less practical than BECCS and CHP.
Court rejects OSHA mask rule. A conservative district court struck down a new OSHA rule requiring workers to be vaccinated. Most legal scholars point out that if OSHA can require hard hats then it can require masks and vaccinations. The case may go to the Supreme Court but either the district court will be overturned or the authority of OSHA will be greatly impaired.
Detailed Process Analysis for thousands of applications involving AWE products. Cane sugar requires processes quite different from beet sugar. Lithium production requires different processes than copper. Petrochemical processing from shale gas benefits from the ethane content. Detailed analyses of each of thousands of processes now being posted in McIlvaine market reports.
This detailed analysis is the foundation both for determining cost of ownership for specific products. and forecasting the market by industry and operator.
Detailed Forecasting of the Air, Water, Energy Opportunities in Pharma
The market for air, water, and energy products in the pharmaceutical industry exceeds $35 billion and will be growing in excess of 6% per year over the next decade.
Certain segments are growing at rates as high as 20% per year while others are shrinking. An example is cleanrooms where modular cleanroom revenues are growing robustly whereas stick built rooms are losing market share.
Some of the products are process equipment and influence the market for associated products. Every centrifuge needs feed and discharge pumps. Every pump needs multiple valves.
The Most Profitable Market initiative is based on separate forecasts for each application with unique cost of ownership factors. There are hundreds of unique niches. Each needs to be evaluated.
Prior to a deep dive into a detailed niche it is necessary to determine the broader market. Millions of forecasts are available in each AWE sector.
The market of $35 billion can be segmented many ways. One is by function.
There is typically a need to purify significant quantities of intake water used for process and cooling. Process is the biggest segment. The waste segment includes treating wastewater. More elaborate treatment of solid waste is also being practiced. Utilities such as compressed air require valves and compressors.
Most large pharmaceutical plants generate electric power along with steam.
The total cost of ownership factors are impacted by the type of service. The four categories are general, critical, severe, and unique. If the operation of the plant depends on the product performance it is critical. If there are abrasive solids it is severe service. If it has to be specially designed it is unique.
Another aspect shaping the market is the form of the end product. It can be a solid tablet or a liquid. Within each product type there are specific drug types using this distribution mode.
Segmentation of the market by Therapy is also useful. Some therapies are growing more rapidly than others. The present AWE revenues also vary from therapy to therapy.
The market for air, water, energy products is directly proportional to the markets for the process equipment. Therefore the most accurate approach is to start with process equipment forecasts.
The market is also impacted by the type of pharmaceutical product which is manufactured, The monoclonal antibody market is over $160 billion whereas the gene and cell therapies markets are approximately $30 billion but are growing rapidly.
The most profitable market program involves determining the forecasts and cost of ownership factors in each niche. This necessitates an analysis of the market by service, function, and pharmaceutical product being manufactured.
This data is available in McIlvaine market reports. Supplemental consulting provides the balance of the MPM program.
The individual market reports are described under markets at www.mcilvainecompany.com
The Most Profitable Market Program is also linked from this home page
Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com cell: 847 226 2391.
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