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Weekly selected highlights in flow control, treatment and combustion from the many McIlvaine publications.
- $10 Billion Market for SCR Systems, Reagents and Catalyst
- U.S. Coal Plant Environmental Upgrades to cost more than $50 billion
$10 Billion Market for SCR Systems, Reagents and Catalyst
The power industry’s annual spending for SCR systems, catalysts and reagents will rise modestly from $9 billion this year to $10 billion in 2029. Sixty-seven percent of the purchases will be for Asian power plants.
There are presently 2 million MW of coal fired plants installed worldwide. This includes 1.2 million MW of SCR installations. There will be 30,000 MW of SCR retirements in the next decade. The coal fired base will increase by 270,000 MW in the next decade of which most will require SCR. This means total SCR will increase by 230,00O MW to over 1.4 million MW over the next decade.
Expenditures for new SCR systems will be $20 billion or over $2 billion/yr. Expenditures for reagents will rise from $5.2 billion per year to over $6 billion. The yearly increase will be over 3 percent. The purchase of SCR catalysts will rise from $1.7 billion per year to over $2 billion by 2029.
More than 50 percent of the coal fired NOx control systems are in China. With the Guodian-Shenhua merger the combined company operates 14 percent of the world’s coal fired power SCR systems. It is the leading purchaser of NOx control equipment but is also a supplier to other utilities.
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Catalyst and Reagent Purchases
$ millions - 2019
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Company
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Reagent
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Catalyst
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Datang
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423
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139
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Guodian/Shenhua
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726
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238
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Huaneng
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544
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179
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Huadian
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363
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119
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NTPC
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189
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62
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ENEL
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60
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37
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J-Power
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30
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10
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KEPCO
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142
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46
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AECOM
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57
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19
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AEP
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66
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22
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BWE
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36
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12
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Duke
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60
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20
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NRG
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60
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20
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Southern
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60
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20
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Vietnam Power
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121
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40
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Most purchasers are spending far more for replacement catalyst than for new catalyst. The exception is NTPC who is installing many new SCR systems.
In the year 2000 China was importing nearly all the catalyst it required. Today the Chinese catalyst producers supply sufficient catalyst to meet domestic needs and also supply catalyst for export.
One of the future opportunities for international suppliers is the supply of catalytic filter elements. Haldor Topsoe and Filtration Group are leading the way with this important new technology which allows NOx reduction and particulate capture in the same device.
The market forecasts are continually updated in N035 NOx Control World Market
There are multiple tracking systems to identify each new project. A weekly Utility E-Alert provides the latest insights. The individual services which can be part of a package are linked below.
N019 Pumps World Market
42EI Utility Tracking System
42EIC Chinese Utility Plans
41F Utility E-Alert
59EI Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Supplier Program
A program built around individual owner forecasts’ is explained at www.mcilvainecompany.com
Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
U.S. Coal Plant Environmental Upgrades to cost more than $50 billion
The 200,000 MW of remaining coal fired capacity in the U.S. will require an investment of more than $50 billion to meet the solid waste, groundwater, wastewater and air emission limits. The McIlvaine tracking system has profiles of the utilities with summaries of the programs and also weekly reporting in the Utility E-Alert. Here is the profile summary for Vectren.
Vectren operates the Culley and Brown units comprising four coal fired boilers. It will no longer operate the Warrick 4 plant for ALCOA.
It faces major expenditures to meet the CCR regulations. There is a big potential for pond dewatering and beneficiation of ponded flyash. Environmental improvements as outlined in the NPDES permit amended February 2018 specify that a dry bottom ash transport water system must be installed prior to December 2020, and the FGD waste water system must be upgraded to a chemical-precipitation biological system by February 2021 or a zero liquid discharge (“ZLD”) system by December 2023.
Vectren has been selling its dry flyash since 2009. Last year it started discussions with a potential partner to explore beneficiation of the ponded ash. In April 2019 the State of Indiana denied Vectren the permit to proceed with a large natural gas fired power plant. It had planned to upgrade the Culley plant and retire the Brown plant because of the scrubber problems. Now it will have to consider extending the life of the Brown units.
The A.B. Brown 1 & 2 units use sodium carbonate double alkali scrubbers. High maintenance costs of these scrubber will probably now be addressed since the remaining life has now been extended.
Each Brown unit has a separate scrubber that was installed when the plants were built in 1979 and 1986. An independent consultant conducted a condition assessment of the Brown scrubbers and concluded the alkaline scrubbers have an expected life cycle of 16 years. They are now beyond that expected useful life. Given their current condition, the consultant recommended retirement of both scrubbers within the next 5-10 years. Brown Unit 1 will be 45 years old and Brown Unit 2 will be 38 years old in 2024. The recommended replacement is one forced oxidation scrubber to remove SO2 from both units. The estimated capital cost is nearly $340 million. Along with a new forced oxidation scrubber in order to comply with the Effluent Limitations Guidelines (ELG) rule, the new scrubber will require a waste water treatment system.
AB Brown Unit 1 has experienced the effects of cycling first hand as Solid Particle Erosion (SPE) damaged a turbine by-pass valve allowing foreign particles to enter the turbine causing a three month outage and a $3.8 million repair during the summer of 2016. The issue appears to have occurred in the main steam outlet header where scale appears to have flaked off the internal header due to multiple thermal transitions related to unit cycling. Turbine valves are now being inspected and changed out more frequently to prevent a similar occurrence.
A profile of Vectren has been posted to the Utility Tracking System under operator profiles. The range of environmental investment requirements are addressed but there are many pages devoted to the CCR program and challenges.
For more information on the tracking system click on 42EI Utility Tracking System
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